Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultArsenal to win ✓65% · @1.40
Double chanceArsenal or draw ✓86% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.51
Arsenal vs Leeds preview and prediction
The match
Arsenal host Leeds in the Premier League on Saturday 10 October, with kick-off at 12:30 (WAT) at Emirates Stadium. Arsenal are 1st with 27 points from 10 games (top of the table), while Leeds sit 9th on 14 points (in the top half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Arsenal's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Brighton 0–3 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Leeds's last 5: DWLDD Most recently they drew with Crystal Palace 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Arsenal arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.6 for Arsenal and 0.6 for Leeds. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Arsenal 65%, draw 21%, Leeds 14%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.00.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Arsenal to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Arsenal 1–0 Leeds. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arsenal65%fair 1.54 · @1.40
Draw21%fair 4.69 · @4.60
Leeds14%fair 7.28 · @7.00
2.20Expected goals
1.64Arsenal xG
0.56Leeds xG
51%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–015%
0–011%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Arsenal 1.6 – 0.6 Leeds expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arsenal to win✓
65%
1.54
1.40
Double chance
Arsenal or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.94
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arsenal / FT Arsenal✗
39%
2.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.51
–
Form
Arsenal – last 6
LWWWWW
19 Sep
@ Brighton
0–3
L
15 Sep
@ Ipswich
4–2
W
12 Sep
@ Sunderland
2–0
W
9 Sep
@ Napoli
1–0
W
6 Sep
vs Chelsea
2–1
W
31 Aug
@ Aston Villa
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Leeds – last 6
DWLDDW
20 Sep
vs Crystal Palace
0–0
D
14 Sep
vs Newcastle
4–1
W
9 Sep
@ Chelsea
3–6
L
5 Sep
@ Brighton
1–1
D
30 Aug
vs Brentford
1–1
D
25 Aug
@ Nottingham Forest
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arsenal and Leeds.
Our pick is Arsenal to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Arsenal vs Leeds?
On our numbers Arsenal have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Leeds 14%.
How many goals will there be in Arsenal vs Leeds?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Leeds?
Our predicted score is Arsenal 1–0 Leeds, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Arsenal vs Leeds?
Arsenal vs Leeds (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Emirates Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
