Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Morton to win @ 3.05 – our chance 39% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMorton to win ✗39% · @3.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.79
Morton vs Arbroath preview and prediction
The match
Morton host Arbroath in the Championship on Saturday 22 August, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Cappielow Park. Morton are 9th with 13 points from 13 games (in the bottom three), while Arbroath sit 8th on 14 points (in the bottom three). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Morton's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Stenhousemuir 0–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.0 per game.
Arbroath's last 5: DLWLL Most recently they drew with Inverness CT 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Arbroath arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 28 March 2026, finished Morton 2–1 Arbroath.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 0.9 for Morton and 0.9 for Arbroath. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Morton 39%, draw 24%, Arbroath 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Morton to win at 3.05 – 39% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 82% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Morton 0–0 Arbroath. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Morton39%fair 2.57 · @3.05
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.30
Arbroath37%fair 2.68 · @2.18
1.86Expected goals
0.94Morton xG
0.91Arbroath xG
53%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–016%
1–015%
0–114%
1–113%
2–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: Morton 0.9 – 0.9 Arbroath expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Morton vs Arbroath?
On our numbers Morton have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Arbroath 37%.
How many goals will there be in Morton vs Arbroath?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Morton vs Arbroath?
Our predicted score is Morton 0–0 Arbroath, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Morton vs Arbroath?
Morton vs Arbroath (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Cappielow Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
