Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
1
Value bet: Livingston to win @ 1.71 – our chance 63% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLivingston to win ✓63% · @1.71
Double chanceLivingston or draw ✓88% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 5.06
Livingston vs Dunfermline preview and prediction
The match
Livingston host Dunfermline in the Championship on Saturday 22 August, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at The Home of the Set Fare Arena. Livingston are 5th with 21 points from 14 games (in the top half), while Dunfermline sit 3rd on 25 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Livingston's last 5: LWDWD Most recently they lost to Partick 0–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Dunfermline's last 5: LDDWW Most recently they lost to Ross County 1–2 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.5 for Livingston and 0.5 for Dunfermline. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 59% likely.
Value angle: Livingston to win at 1.71 – 63% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Livingston 1–0 Dunfermline. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Livingston63%fair 1.60 · @1.71
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.55
Dunfermline12%fair 8.27 · @4.50
2.05Expected goals
1.54Livingston xG
0.51Dunfermline xG
51%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–020%
2–015%
0–013%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Livingston 1.5 – 0.5 Dunfermline expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Livingston to win✓
63%
1.60
1.71 ▲
Double chance
Livingston or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.80 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Livingston / FT Livingston✓
38%
2.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
20%
5.06
–
Form
Livingston – last 6
LWDWDW
7 Aug
@ Partick
0–2
L
1 Aug
vs Queen's Park
2–0
W
25 Jul
@ Stenhousemuir
0–0
D
21 Jul
vs Forfar Athletic
8–0
W
18 Jul
vs Partick
1–1
D
14 Jul
@ Brechin
2–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Dunfermline – last 6
LDDWWW
15 Aug
vs Ross County
1–2
L
8 Aug
vs Ayr Utd
1–1
D
1 Aug
@ Inverness CT
0–0
D
26 Jul
@ ST Mirren
1–0
W
21 Jul
vs Cove Rangers
5–0
W
14 Jul
vs Dumbarton
4–1
W
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Livingston and Dunfermline.
What is the prediction for Livingston vs Dunfermline?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Livingston vs Dunfermline?
On our numbers Livingston have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Dunfermline 12%.
How many goals will there be in Livingston vs Dunfermline?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Livingston vs Dunfermline?
Our predicted score is Livingston 1–0 Dunfermline, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Livingston vs Dunfermline?
Livingston vs Dunfermline (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at The Home of the Set Fare Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
