Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma prediction & analysis
86%
Footrivo pick
Matsumoto Yamaga or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Matsumoto Yamaga to win @ 1.73 – our chance 65% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMatsumoto Yamaga to win ✓65% · @1.73
Double chanceMatsumoto Yamaga or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.96
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma preview and prediction
The match
Thespakusatsu Gunma travel to Sunpro Alwin in the J3 League on Wednesday 21 October (11:00 WAT) to face Matsumoto Yamaga. Matsumoto Yamaga are 15th with 17 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Thespakusatsu Gunma sit 19th on 13 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Matsumoto Yamaga's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Parceiro Nagano 1–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Thespakusatsu Gunma's last 5: DWLLW Most recently they drew with Gainare Tottori 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Matsumoto Yamaga and 0.7 for Thespakusatsu Gunma. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 55%.
Safer route: Matsumoto Yamaga or draw (86%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Matsumoto Yamaga to win at 1.73 – 65% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Matsumoto Yamaga or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Matsumoto Yamaga 1–0 Thespakusatsu Gunma. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Matsumoto Yamaga65%fair 1.53 · @1.73
Draw21%fair 4.83 · @3.30
Thespakusatsu Gunma14%fair 7.15 · @4.00
2.45Expected goals
1.79Matsumoto Yamaga xG
0.66Thespakusatsu Gunma xG
55%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Matsumoto Yamaga 1.8 – 0.7 Thespakusatsu Gunma expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Matsumoto Yamaga to win✓
65%
1.53
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Matsumoto Yamaga or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.80
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.80
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Half-time result
Matsumoto Yamaga ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Matsumoto Yamaga / FT Matsumoto Yamaga✓
41%
2.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.96
–
Form
Matsumoto Yamaga – last 6
LLWLWW
18 Oct
@ Parceiro Nagano
1–2
L
14 Oct
vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0–1
L
11 Oct
vs Kagoshima United
1–0
W
3 Oct
vs Gainare Tottori
0–1
L
29 Sep
vs Albirex Niigata
1–0
W
26 Sep
@ Tochigi SC
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Thespakusatsu Gunma – last 6
DWLLWL
17 Oct
@ Gainare Tottori
1–1
D
10 Oct
vs FC Ryukyu
2–1
W
3 Oct
@ Ehime FC
1–3
L
26 Sep
vs Roasso Kumamoto
0–1
L
19 Sep
vs Kochi United
1–0
W
12 Sep
@ Renofa Yamaguchi
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Matsumoto Yamaga and Thespakusatsu Gunma.
What is the prediction for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?
Our pick is Matsumoto Yamaga or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?
On our numbers Matsumoto Yamaga have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Thespakusatsu Gunma 14%.
How many goals will there be in Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?
Our predicted score is Matsumoto Yamaga 1–0 Thespakusatsu Gunma, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Thespakusatsu Gunma (J3 League) kicks off on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Sunpro Alwin.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
