Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
O2.5
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.80 – our chance 63% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCSKA Sofia to win ✓49% · @1.98
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓8% · fair 12.03
Derry City vs CSKA Sofia preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Europa League sees Derry City take on CSKA Sofia on Thursday 16 July, kicking off at 18:30 (WAT) at Brandywell Stadium.
Form guide
Derry City's last 5: LLWDL Most recently they lost to CSKA Sofia 2–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
CSKA Sofia's last 5: WWLLD Most recently they beat Derry City 3–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
CSKA Sofia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 9 July 2026, finished CSKA Sofia 3–2 Derry City.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.9 goals: 1.7 for Derry City and 2.2 for CSKA Sofia. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 63% and both teams to score at 63%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Derry City 31%, draw 20%, CSKA Sofia 49%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 – 63% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 82% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.22, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Derry City 1–2 CSKA Sofia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Derry City31%fair 3.21 · @3.25
Draw20%fair 4.92 · @3.55
CSKA Sofia49%fair 2.06 · @1.98
3.87Expected goals
1.71Derry City xG
2.16CSKA Sofia xG
63%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–28%
1–18%
2–27%
2–17%
1–36%
2–35%
From our goals model: Derry City 1.7 – 2.2 CSKA Sofia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Derry City vs CSKA Sofia?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Derry City vs CSKA Sofia?
On our numbers Derry City have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 20% and CSKA Sofia 49%.
How many goals will there be in Derry City vs CSKA Sofia?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derry City vs CSKA Sofia?
Our predicted score is Derry City 1–2 CSKA Sofia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.
When is Derry City vs CSKA Sofia?
Derry City vs CSKA Sofia (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 16 July 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Brandywell Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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