Aluminij vs Sheriff Tiraspol prediction & analysis
82%
Footrivo pick
Sheriff Tiraspol or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Sheriff Tiraspol to win @ 1.94 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSheriff Tiraspol to win ✓56% · @1.94
Double chanceSheriff Tiraspol or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓14% · fair 6.97
Aluminij vs Sheriff Tiraspol preview and prediction
The match
Aluminij host Sheriff Tiraspol in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 16 July, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Ljudski vrt.
Form guide
Aluminij's last 5: DLLDL Most recently they drew with Sheriff Tiraspol 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Sheriff Tiraspol's last 5: WDDWD Most recently they beat Zimbru 4–2 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 0.3 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sheriff Tiraspol arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 9 July 2026, finished Sheriff Tiraspol 0–0 Aluminij.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.8 for Aluminij and 1.6 for Sheriff Tiraspol. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 54%.
Safer route: Sheriff Tiraspol or draw (82%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Sheriff Tiraspol to win at 1.94 – 56% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Sheriff Tiraspol or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.23, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Aluminij 0–1 Sheriff Tiraspol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Aluminij18%fair 5.44 · @3.85
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @3.20
Sheriff Tiraspol56%fair 1.79 · @1.94
2.42Expected goals
0.81Aluminij xG
1.61Sheriff Tiraspol xG
54%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–112%
0–212%
1–29%
0–09%
1–07%
From our goals model: Aluminij 0.8 – 1.6 Sheriff Tiraspol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Aluminij vs Sheriff Tiraspol?
Our pick is Sheriff Tiraspol or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Aluminij vs Sheriff Tiraspol?
On our numbers Aluminij have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Sheriff Tiraspol 56%.
How many goals will there be in Aluminij vs Sheriff Tiraspol?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aluminij vs Sheriff Tiraspol?
Our predicted score is Aluminij 0–1 Sheriff Tiraspol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Aluminij vs Sheriff Tiraspol?
Aluminij vs Sheriff Tiraspol (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 16 July 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Ljudski vrt.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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