Value bet: Kagoshima United to win @ 1.89 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultKagoshima United to win ✓58% · @1.89
Double chanceEither team to win ✓82% · @1.23
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓11% · fair 9.39
Kagoshima United vs Thespakusatsu Gunma preview and prediction
The match
Thespakusatsu Gunma travel to Shiranami Stadium in the J3 League on Saturday 8 August (11:00 WAT) to face Kagoshima United. Kagoshima United are 4th with 31 points from 16 games (in the top four), while Thespakusatsu Gunma sit 19th on 13 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Kagoshima United's last 5: WDWWL Most recently they beat Blaublitz Akita 2–0 away. They average 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Thespakusatsu Gunma's last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to Kanazawa 1–4 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.8 for Kagoshima United and 1.0 for Thespakusatsu Gunma. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Kagoshima United 58%, draw 18%, Thespakusatsu Gunma 24%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Kagoshima United to win at 1.89 – 58% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Kagoshima United 1–1 Thespakusatsu Gunma. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Kagoshima United58%fair 1.71 · @1.89
Draw18%fair 5.68 · @3.70
Thespakusatsu Gunma24%fair 4.16 · @3.60
2.83Expected goals
1.80Kagoshima United xG
1.03Thespakusatsu Gunma xG
60%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–011%
2–110%
2–010%
0–16%
3–16%
From our goals model: Kagoshima United 1.8 – 1.0 Thespakusatsu Gunma expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Kagoshima United to win✓
58%
1.71
1.89 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
82%
1.21
1.23
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.31
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
1.72
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.39
Half-time result
Kagoshima United ahead at half-time✓
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Kagoshima United / FT Kagoshima United✓
35%
2.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
11%
9.39
–
Form
Kagoshima United – last 6
WDWWLL
7 Jun
@ Blaublitz Akita
2–0
W
30 May
@ Albirex Niigata
0–0
D
24 May
@ Kitakyushu
5–1
W
17 May
vs Roasso Kumamoto
2–1
W
10 May
@ Biwako Shiga
0–1
L
6 May
vs Oita Trinita
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Thespakusatsu Gunma – last 6
LWLWWL
7 Jun
@ Kanazawa
1–4
L
23 May
vs Sagamihara
7–2
W
17 May
@ Blaublitz Akita
1–3
L
6 May
@ Montedio Yamagata
2–1
W
3 May
@ Vanraure Hachinohe
1–0
W
29 Apr
vs Vegalta Sendai
1–3
L
2.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Kagoshima United and Thespakusatsu Gunma.
What is the prediction for Kagoshima United vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Kagoshima United vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?
On our numbers Kagoshima United have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Thespakusatsu Gunma 24%.
How many goals will there be in Kagoshima United vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kagoshima United vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?
Our predicted score is Kagoshima United 1–1 Thespakusatsu Gunma, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Kagoshima United vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?
Kagoshima United vs Thespakusatsu Gunma (J3 League) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Shiranami Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
