Serie D · Brazil
Lagarto vs CSA prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Lagarto 1.2 – 1.6 CSA expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
CSA shade it despite being away from home – 48% to win, against 30% for Lagarto.
Lagarto have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.2 per game. CSA have 16 points from their last 6 (5W 1D 0L), averaging 3.7 scored and 1.0 conceded. CSA come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.8 goals (1.2 for Lagarto, 1.6 for CSA). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 60%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (10%), 1–2 (9%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is close to our fair price of 1.34. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 1.80 is our value angle (60% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | CSA to win ✗ | 48% | 2.09 | 2.10 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 60% | 1.67 | 1.80 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.34 | 1.30 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 51% | 1.98 | 2.00 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.42 | 1.30 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 41% | 2.45 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT CSA / FT CSA ✗ | 28% | 3.56 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.52 | – |
Form
Lagarto – last 6
| 14 Jun | vs Decisão | 1–0 | W |
| 30 May | @ Treze | 2–1 | W |
| 24 May | @ Retrô | 1–1 | D |
| 17 May | vs Sergipe | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Apr | @ Decisão | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Feb | vs América SE | 0–3 | L |
CSA – last 6
| 14 Jun | @ Atlético Alagoinhas | 7–1 | W |
| 31 May | vs Jacuipense | 1–1 | D |
| 17 May | @ CSE | 5–1 | W |
| 5 Apr | vs Atlético Alagoinhas | 3–0 | W |
| 2 Apr | @ ASA | 3–2 | W |
| 18 Mar | @ CRB | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lagarto and CSA.
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ABC1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Lagarto vs CSA?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Lagarto vs CSA?
On our numbers Lagarto have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 22% and CSA 48%.
How many goals will there be in Lagarto vs CSA?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Lagarto vs CSA?
Lagarto vs CSA (Serie D) kicks off on Sunday 21 June 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.