Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.20
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultLens to win55% · @1.85
Double chanceLens or draw79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score63% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals81% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.34
Lens vs Toulouse preview and prediction
The match
Toulouse travel to Stade Bollaert-Delelis in the Ligue 1 on Saturday 21 November (20:45 WAT) to face Lens. Lens are 11th with 13 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Toulouse sit 12th on 13 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Lens's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to Marseille 1–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 2.8 conceded.
Toulouse's last 5: WLDWD Most recently they beat Strasbourg 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Toulouse arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 21 April 2026, finished Lens 4–1 Toulouse. Across their last 2 meetings Lens have won 2, Toulouse 0, with 0 draws and 5.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.0 for Lens and 1.3 for Toulouse. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 60% and both teams to score at 63%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lens 55%, draw 24%, Toulouse 21%.
Safer route: Lens or draw (79%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.62.
Prediction
Our prediction: Over 1.5 goals – a 81% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Lens 1–1 Toulouse. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lens55%fair 1.83 · @1.85
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.70
Toulouse21%fair 4.67 · @3.80
3.22Expected goals
1.96Lens xG
1.26Toulouse xG
63%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–110%
1–08%
2–08%
3–16%
1–26%
From our goals model: Lens 2.0 – 1.3 Toulouse expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Lens
Toulouse
Attack vs Ligue 1 average
+25%
+8%
Goals conceded vs average
+0%
+2%
Our expected goals here
2.10
1.44
Our own ratings from every Ligue 1 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Lens vs Toulouse?
On our numbers Lens have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Toulouse 21%.
How many goals will there be in Lens vs Toulouse?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lens vs Toulouse?
Our predicted score is Lens 1–1 Toulouse, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Lens vs Toulouse?
Lens vs Toulouse (Ligue 1) kicks off on Saturday 21 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
