Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMonaco to win ✗62% · @1.57
Double chanceMonaco or draw ✓84% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.96
Monaco vs Toulouse preview and prediction
The match
The Ligue 1 sees Monaco take on Toulouse on Saturday 10 October, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at Stade Louis II. Monaco are 7th with 16 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Toulouse sit 12th on 13 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Monaco's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Lens 2–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Toulouse's last 5: WDLDL Most recently they beat Le Havre 3–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Monaco arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for Monaco and 0.8 for Toulouse. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Monaco 62%, draw 23%, Toulouse 16%.
Safer route: Monaco or draw (84%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.62.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Monaco to win – a 62% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Monaco 1–0 Toulouse. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Monaco62%fair 1.62 · @1.57
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @4.20
Toulouse16%fair 6.35 · @5.00
2.70Expected goals
1.87Monaco xG
0.83Toulouse xG
58%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Monaco 1.9 – 0.8 Toulouse expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monaco to win✗
62%
1.62
1.57
Double chance
Monaco or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Half-time result
Monaco ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monaco / FT Monaco✗
39%
2.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.96
–
Form
Monaco – last 6
WDWWWW
18 Sep
vs Lens
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Strasbourg
1–1
D
4 Sep
@ Paris Saint Germain
2–1
W
30 Aug
vs Marseille
2–0
W
27 Aug
vs Gornik Zabrze
4–1
W
23 Aug
@ Le Havre
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Toulouse – last 6
WDLDLL
19 Sep
vs Le Havre
3–2
W
12 Sep
@ Lorient
2–2
D
3 Sep
vs Lille
0–1
L
29 Aug
@ Stade Brestois 29
2–2
D
22 Aug
vs Lyon
0–2
L
15 Aug
vs Hamburger SV
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monaco and Toulouse.
Our pick is Monaco to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Monaco vs Toulouse?
On our numbers Monaco have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Toulouse 16%.
How many goals will there be in Monaco vs Toulouse?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monaco vs Toulouse?
Our predicted score is Monaco 1–0 Toulouse, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Monaco vs Toulouse?
Monaco vs Toulouse (Ligue 1) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade Louis II.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
