Ligue 1 · France · Stade Pierre-MauroyLille vs Le Havre prediction & analysis
Lille to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Lille 1.8 – 0.5 Le Havre expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Lille are clear favourites at home with a 66% chance of winning, against 10% for Le Havre.
Lille have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.3 per game. Le Havre have 5 points from their last 6 (1W 2D 3L), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded. Lille come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.3 goals (1.8 for Lille, 0.5 for Le Havre). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 50%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (18%), 2–0 (15%), 0–0 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Lille have won 0, Le Havre have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Lille to win at a 66% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.40 is close to our fair price of 1.51.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Lille to win ✓ | 66% | 1.51 | 1.40 |
| Double chance | Lille or draw ✓ | 90% | 1.11 | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 50% | 1.99 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 67% | 1.49 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 60% | 1.68 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | – |
| Half-time result | Lille ahead at half-time ✓ | 46% | 2.18 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Lille / FT Lille ✓ | 42% | 2.37 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 18% | 5.68 | – |
Form
Lille – last 6
| 2 Oct | vs Zulte Waregem | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Nice | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Estac Troyes | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Sep | vs Real Betis | 2–3 | L |
| 3 Sep | @ Toulouse | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | vs Paris Saint Germain | 2–2 | D |
Le Havre – last 6
| 19 Sep | @ Toulouse | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Angers | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Stade Brestois 29 | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | @ Lyon | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | vs Monaco | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Aug | @ Le Mans | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 3 May 2026 | Lille v Le Havre | 1–1 |
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 10 | +12 | 23 |
| 2 |  Lille | 10 | +7 | 21 |
| 3 |  Paris FC | 10 | +7 | 20 |
| 4 |  Marseille | 10 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Lyon | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 6 |  Nice | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 |  Rennes | 10 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 10 |  Lorient | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 |  Lens | 10 | +2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 10 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 10 | -11 | 10 |
| 15 |  Le Mans | 10 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 |  Angers | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 10 | -13 | 2 |
More Ligue 1 predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Lille vs Le Havre?
Our pick is Lille to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Lille vs Le Havre?
On our numbers Lille have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Le Havre 10%.
How many goals will there be in Lille vs Le Havre?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Lille vs Le Havre?
Lille vs Le Havre (Ligue 1) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 16:15 (West Africa Time) at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.