Good pick · fair odds 1.67 · bookmaker 1.95 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.95Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMVV to win ✓60% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓83% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.24
MVV vs Helmond Sport preview and prediction
The match
Helmond Sport travel to De Geusselt in the Eerste Divisie on Saturday 26 September (19:00 WAT) to face MVV. MVV are 8th with 0 points from 0 games (in the top half), while Helmond Sport sit 7th on 0 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
MVV's last 5: LLDWL Most recently they lost to Waalwijk 1–6 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Helmond Sport's last 5: LWWLD Most recently they lost to Den Bosch 1–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.1 for MVV and 1.2 for Helmond Sport. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 61% and both teams to score at 64%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: MVV 60%, draw 17%, Helmond Sport 23%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.53.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was MVV to win – a 60% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.67, so there is value in it. Predicted score: MVV 2–1 Helmond Sport. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
MVV60%fair 1.67 · @1.95
Draw17%fair 5.84 · @3.70
Helmond Sport23%fair 4.35 · @3.60
3.30Expected goals
2.10MVV xG
1.20Helmond Sport xG
64%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–19%
2–08%
1–08%
3–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: MVV 2.1 – 1.2 Helmond Sport expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
MVV to win✓
60%
1.67
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
83%
1.21
1.28 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.56
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.50
Half-time result
MVV ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT MVV / FT MVV✗
37%
2.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.24
–
Form
MVV – last 6
LLDWLW
18 Sep
@ Waalwijk
1–6
L
11 Sep
vs Almere City FC
0–4
L
6 Sep
vs Roda
1–1
D
28 Aug
@ Jong AZ
2–1
W
25 Aug
@ KRC Genk II
0–6
L
21 Aug
vs FC Volendam
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Helmond Sport – last 6
LWWLDL
18 Sep
@ Den Bosch
1–2
L
11 Sep
vs Jong PSV U21
3–1
W
4 Sep
vs VVV Venlo
4–2
W
28 Aug
@ Jong Ajax
2–3
L
21 Aug
vs Waalwijk
1–1
D
14 Aug
@ Roda
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between MVV and Helmond Sport.
Our pick is MVV to win with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win MVV vs Helmond Sport?
On our numbers MVV have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Helmond Sport 23%.
How many goals will there be in MVV vs Helmond Sport?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for MVV vs Helmond Sport?
Our predicted score is MVV 2–1 Helmond Sport, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is MVV vs Helmond Sport?
MVV vs Helmond Sport (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at De Geusselt.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
