Eerste Divisie · Netherlands · Parkstad LimburgRoda vs Waalwijk prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: Waalwijk to win @ 2.62 – our chance 40% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Roda 1.4 – 1.5 Waalwijk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Roda and Waalwijk on our numbers – 37% for the home side, 40% for the visitors and 22% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Roda have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (3W 3D 0L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.7 per game. Waalwijk have 12 points from their last 6 (3W 3D 0L), averaging 2.8 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.9 goals (1.4 for Roda, 1.5 for Waalwijk). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 63%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–2 (9%), 0–1 (8%).
In their last 2 meetings, Roda have won 1, Waalwijk have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.28. For a bigger price, Waalwijk to win at 2.62 is our value angle (40% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Waalwijk to win ✗ | 40% | 2.47 | 2.62 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 63% | 1.60 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.20 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 55% | 1.80 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.51 | 1.44 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 41% | 2.45 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Waalwijk / FT Waalwijk ✗ | 23% | 4.34 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 9% | 11.64 | – |
Form
Roda – last 6
| 18 Sep | @ Jong Ajax | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Vitesse | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ MVV | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | vs NAC Breda | 2–2 | D |
| 21 Aug | @ Dordrecht | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Aug | vs Helmond Sport | 2–1 | W |
Waalwijk – last 6
| 18 Sep | vs MVV | 6–1 | W |
| 11 Sep | @ Jong Ajax | 2–0 | W |
| 4 Sep | vs NAC Breda | 4–2 | W |
| 28 Aug | vs Jong PSV U21 | 2–2 | D |
| 21 Aug | @ Helmond Sport | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | vs Dordrecht | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 28 Apr 2026 | Roda v Waalwijk | 1–1 |
| 13 Feb 2026 | Waalwijk v Roda | 1–2 |
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Heracles | 14 | +29 | 35 |
| 2 |  VVV Venlo | 14 | +15 | 29 |
| 3 |  Almere City FC | 14 | +16 | 28 |
| 4 |  NAC Breda | 14 | +5 | 25 |
| 5 |  Roda | 14 | +1 | 25 |
| 6 |  Emmen | 14 | 0 | 25 |
| 7 |  FC Volendam | 14 | +9 | 22 |
| 8 |  MVV | 14 | -10 | 20 |
| 9 |  Den Bosch | 14 | +2 | 19 |
| 10 |  Vitesse | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 11 |  Waalwijk | 14 | +3 | 17 |
| 12 |  Jong AZ | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 13 |  Jong PSV U21 | 14 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 |  Jong Ajax | 14 | -8 | 16 |
| 15 |  De Graafschap | 13 | -10 | 15 |
| 16 |  FC OSS | 14 | -3 | 14 |
| 17 |  Helmond Sport | 14 | -6 | 12 |
| 18 |  Dordrecht | 14 | -16 | 12 |
| 19 |  Jong Utrecht | 14 | -11 | 11 |
| 20 |  FC Eindhoven | 14 | -13 | 11 |
More Eerste Divisie predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Roda vs Waalwijk?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Roda vs Waalwijk?
On our numbers Roda have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Waalwijk 40%.
How many goals will there be in Roda vs Waalwijk?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
When is Roda vs Waalwijk?
Roda vs Waalwijk (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Parkstad Limburg.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.