Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: FC Volendam to win @ 1.77 – our chance 65% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFC Volendam to win ✗65% · @1.77
Double chanceFC Volendam or draw ✗85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗84% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.56
MVV vs FC Volendam preview and prediction
The match
MVV host FC Volendam in the Eerste Divisie on Friday 21 August, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at De Geusselt. MVV are 8th with 0 points from 0 games (in the top half), while FC Volendam sit 11th on 0 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
MVV's last 5: WWDLL Most recently they beat FC Eindhoven 3–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
FC Volendam's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat FC OSS 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 1.1 for MVV and 2.4 for FC Volendam. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: MVV 15%, draw 20%, FC Volendam 65%.
Safer route: FC Volendam or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.50.
Value angle: FC Volendam to win at 1.77 – 65% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was FC Volendam or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: MVV 1–2 FC Volendam. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
MVV15%fair 6.64 · @4.00
Draw20%fair 5.09 · @3.90
FC Volendam65%fair 1.53 · @1.77
3.57Expected goals
1.13MVV xG
2.44FC Volendam xG
63%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
0–28%
1–18%
1–38%
0–17%
0–37%
From our goals model: MVV 1.1 – 2.4 FC Volendam expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Volendam to win✗
65%
1.53
1.77 ▲
Double chance
FC Volendam or draw✗
85%
1.18
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
63%
1.59
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
84%
1.20
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.57
Half-time result
FC Volendam ahead at half-time✗
50%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Volendam / FT FC Volendam✗
44%
2.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.56
–
Form
MVV – last 6
WWDLLD
14 Aug
@ FC Eindhoven
3–2
W
9 Aug
vs Jong Utrecht
2–1
W
1 Aug
vs Patro Eisden
1–1
D
28 Jul
@ KAA Gent II
0–1
L
25 Jul
vs SK Beveren
3–4
L
21 Jul
@ EVV
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
FC Volendam – last 6
WLLWLL
15 Aug
vs FC OSS
3–0
W
10 Aug
@ Jong PSV U21
2–3
L
2 Aug
vs Ajax
1–3
L
24 Jul
@ Groningen
4–0
W
15 Jul
@ Almere City FC
1–2
L
11 Jul
@ Jong AZ
1–3
L
2.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between MVV and FC Volendam.
Our pick is FC Volendam or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win MVV vs FC Volendam?
On our numbers MVV have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 20% and FC Volendam 65%.
How many goals will there be in MVV vs FC Volendam?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for MVV vs FC Volendam?
Our predicted score is MVV 1–2 FC Volendam, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is MVV vs FC Volendam?
MVV vs FC Volendam (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Friday 21 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at De Geusselt.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
