Value bet: Over 3.5 goals @ 2.10 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultEmmen to win ✓41% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓69% · @1.36
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓71% · @1.44
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 13.52
Emmen vs Jong AZ preview and prediction
The match
Jong AZ travel to De Oude Meerdijk in the Eerste Divisie on Friday 21 August (19:00 WAT) to face Emmen. Emmen are 6th with 0 points from 0 games (in the top half), while Jong AZ sit 19th on 0 points (in the bottom three). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Emmen's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Jong Ajax 6–4 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Jong AZ's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat De Graafschap 5–2 away. On the road they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 3.7 per game.
Jong AZ arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 2.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 9 March 2026, finished Jong AZ 2–3 Emmen.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.1 goals: 2.1 for Emmen and 2.0 for Jong AZ. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 71% and both teams to score at 69%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Emmen 41%, draw 21%, Jong AZ 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (69%) at 1.36.
Value angle: Over 3.5 goals at 2.10 – 51% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.44, above our fair price of 1.41, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Emmen 2–1 Jong AZ. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Emmen41%fair 2.43 · @2.38
Draw21%fair 4.68 · @3.75
Jong AZ37%fair 2.67 · @2.60
4.05Expected goals
2.08Emmen xG
1.98Jong AZ xG
69%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–17%
2–27%
1–17%
1–27%
3–15%
3–25%
From our goals model: Emmen 2.1 – 2.0 Jong AZ expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Emmen vs Jong AZ?
On our numbers Emmen have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Jong AZ 37%.
How many goals will there be in Emmen vs Jong AZ?
We expect about 4.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 69% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Emmen vs Jong AZ?
Our predicted score is Emmen 2–1 Jong AZ, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.1 goals in total.
When is Emmen vs Jong AZ?
Emmen vs Jong AZ (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Friday 21 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at De Oude Meerdijk.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
