Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 – our chance 54% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRoda to win ✓63% · @1.75
Double chanceRoda or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.64
Roda vs Helmond Sport preview and prediction
The match
The Eerste Divisie sees Roda take on Helmond Sport on Friday 14 August, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT) at Parkstad Limburg Stadion. Roda are 14th with 0 points from 0 games (in the bottom half), while Helmond Sport sit 7th on 0 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Roda's last 5: LLWLD Most recently they lost to Emmen 0–1 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game.
Helmond Sport's last 5: DWDLL Most recently they drew with De Graafschap 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 20 March 2026, finished Roda 1–1 Helmond Sport.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.6 for Roda and 0.6 for Helmond Sport. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 54% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Roda 63%, draw 22%, Helmond Sport 15%.
Safer route: Roda or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 2.10 – 54% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Roda or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Roda 1–0 Helmond Sport. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Roda63%fair 1.59 · @1.75
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @3.85
Helmond Sport15%fair 6.54 · @4.20
2.20Expected goals
1.60Roda xG
0.60Helmond Sport xG
56%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–014%
0–011%
1–111%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Roda 1.6 – 0.6 Helmond Sport expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Roda or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Roda vs Helmond Sport?
On our numbers Roda have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Helmond Sport 15%.
How many goals will there be in Roda vs Helmond Sport?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Roda vs Helmond Sport?
Our predicted score is Roda 1–0 Helmond Sport, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Roda vs Helmond Sport?
Roda vs Helmond Sport (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
