Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Cagliari to win @ 2.94 – our chance 45% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +32%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCagliari to win ✓45% · @2.94
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓13% · fair 7.57
Parma vs Cagliari preview and prediction
The match
Cagliari travel to Stadio Ennio Tardini in the Serie A on Saturday 22 August (19:45 WAT) to face Parma. Parma are 16th with 8 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Cagliari sit 9th on 16 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Parma's last 5: WLDDW Most recently they beat Catania 2–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 5. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Cagliari's last 5: WDDWD Most recently they beat Arezzo 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cagliari arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 27 February 2026, finished Parma 1–1 Cagliari.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.0 for Parma and 1.3 for Cagliari. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 52%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Parma 32%, draw 23%, Cagliari 45%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Cagliari to win at 2.94 – 45% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Parma 0–1 Cagliari. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Parma32%fair 3.16 · @2.48
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.05
Cagliari45%fair 2.23 · @2.94
2.26Expected goals
0.99Parma xG
1.26Cagliari xG
52%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
1–113%
0–010%
1–010%
0–28%
1–28%
From our goals model: Parma 1.0 – 1.3 Cagliari expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Parma vs Cagliari?
On our numbers Parma have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Cagliari 45%.
How many goals will there be in Parma vs Cagliari?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Parma vs Cagliari?
Our predicted score is Parma 0–1 Cagliari, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Parma vs Cagliari?
Parma vs Cagliari (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
