Value bet: Napoli to win @ 1.82 – our chance 60% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNapoli to win ✓60% · @1.82
Double chanceNapoli or draw ✓84% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.56
Genoa vs Napoli preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Genoa take on Napoli on Saturday 22 August, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. Genoa are 13th with 13 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Napoli sit 10th on 15 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Genoa's last 5: WLLWD Most recently they beat Ascoli 4–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Napoli's last 5: WDWWL Most recently they beat Aris Thessalonikis 6–2 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.7 for Genoa and 1.7 for Napoli. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Genoa 16%, draw 23%, Napoli 60%.
Safer route: Napoli or draw (84%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Napoli to win at 1.82 – 60% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Genoa 0–1 Napoli. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Genoa16%fair 6.10 · @4.60
Draw23%fair 4.32 · @3.30
Napoli60%fair 1.65 · @1.82
2.39Expected goals
0.73Genoa xG
1.67Napoli xG
52%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–213%
1–111%
1–29%
0–09%
0–37%
From our goals model: Genoa 0.7 – 1.7 Napoli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Napoli to win✓
60%
1.65
1.82 ▲
Double chance
Napoli or draw✓
84%
1.20
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Napoli / FT Napoli✗
37%
2.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.56
–
Form
Genoa – last 6
WLLWDW
16 Aug
vs Ascoli
4–1
W
8 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruna
0–1
L
4 Aug
@ Bournemouth
1–10
L
1 Aug
@ Leicester
1–0
W
25 Jul
vs Vicenza Virtus
2–2
D
19 Jul
vs Trento
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Napoli – last 6
WDWWLW
12 Aug
vs Aris Thessalonikis
6–2
W
8 Aug
vs Celta Vigo
1–1
D
5 Aug
vs Osasuna
2–1
W
26 Jul
vs Carrarese
2–0
W
22 Jul
vs Arezzo
1–3
L
24 May
vs Udinese
1–0
W
2.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Genoa and Napoli.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Genoa vs Napoli?
On our numbers Genoa have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Napoli 60%.
How many goals will there be in Genoa vs Napoli?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Genoa vs Napoli?
Our predicted score is Genoa 0–1 Napoli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Genoa vs Napoli?
Genoa vs Napoli (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
