FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua prediction & analysis
88%
Footrivo pick
FC Cajamarca or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: FC Cajamarca to win @ 1.70 – our chance 66% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFC Cajamarca to win ✗66% · @1.70
Double chanceFC Cajamarca or draw ✗88% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗12% · fair 8.10
FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua preview and prediction
The match
UCV Moquegua travel to Estadio Heroes de San Ramon in the Primera División on Sunday 18 October (19:00 WAT) to face FC Cajamarca. FC Cajamarca are 14th with 14 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while UCV Moquegua sit 17th on 12 points (in the bottom three). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
FC Cajamarca's last 5: DLWLW Most recently they drew with ADT 0–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 2.2 conceded.
UCV Moquegua's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Cienciano 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
FC Cajamarca arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.1 for FC Cajamarca and 0.8 for UCV Moquegua. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 56%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: FC Cajamarca 66%, draw 21%, UCV Moquegua 12%.
Safer route: FC Cajamarca or draw (88%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.62.
Value angle: FC Cajamarca to win at 1.70 – 66% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was FC Cajamarca or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: FC Cajamarca 2–0 UCV Moquegua. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FC Cajamarca66%fair 1.51 · @1.70
Draw21%fair 4.66 · @3.60
UCV Moquegua12%fair 8.26 · @4.50
2.86Expected goals
2.08FC Cajamarca xG
0.78UCV Moquegua xG
56%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–19%
3–09%
3–17%
From our goals model: FC Cajamarca 2.1 – 0.8 UCV Moquegua expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Cajamarca to win✗
66%
1.51
1.70 ▲
Double chance
FC Cajamarca or draw✗
88%
1.14
1.20 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Half-time result
FC Cajamarca ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Cajamarca / FT FC Cajamarca✗
44%
2.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
12%
8.10
–
Form
FC Cajamarca – last 6
DLWLWL
10 Oct
@ ADT
0–0
D
19 Sep
vs Cusco
1–2
L
12 Sep
@ Club Deportivo Los Chankas
2–1
W
4 Sep
vs Cienciano
2–5
L
28 Aug
@ Comerciantes Unidos
3–2
W
21 Aug
vs Atletico Grau
1–3
L
1.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
UCV Moquegua – last 6
LLLLLL
8 Oct
vs Cienciano
0–2
L
20 Sep
@ Juan Pablo II College
0–4
L
13 Sep
vs Sporting Cristal
1–2
L
6 Sep
@ Cusco
0–2
L
30 Aug
vs Alianza Atletico
1–4
L
27 Aug
@ ADT
0–2
L
0.3Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC Cajamarca and UCV Moquegua.
What is the prediction for FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua?
Our pick is FC Cajamarca or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua?
On our numbers FC Cajamarca have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and UCV Moquegua 12%.
How many goals will there be in FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua?
Our predicted score is FC Cajamarca 2–0 UCV Moquegua, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua?
FC Cajamarca vs UCV Moquegua (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Heroes de San Ramon.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
