UCV Moquegua vs Comerciantes Unidos prediction & analysis
78%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Comerciantes Unidos to win @ 3.45 – our chance 31% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultUCV Moquegua to win ✗46% · @2.14
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.83
UCV Moquegua vs Comerciantes Unidos preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División sees UCV Moquegua take on Comerciantes Unidos on Saturday 18 July, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Estadio 25 de Noviembre. UCV Moquegua are 17th with 12 points from 16 games (in the bottom three), while Comerciantes Unidos sit 13th on 16 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
UCV Moquegua's last 5: DDWLL Most recently they drew with Deportivo Garcilaso 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Comerciantes Unidos's last 5: DLLDL Most recently they drew with Juan Pablo II College 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 4 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.0 per game.
UCV Moquegua arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 0.8 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.3 for UCV Moquegua and 1.0 for Comerciantes Unidos. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 54%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: UCV Moquegua 46%, draw 22%, Comerciantes Unidos 31%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Comerciantes Unidos to win at 3.45 – 31% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: UCV Moquegua 1–1 Comerciantes Unidos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
UCV Moquegua46%fair 2.16 · @2.14
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.20
Comerciantes Unidos31%fair 3.19 · @3.45
2.34Expected goals
1.32UCV Moquegua xG
1.02Comerciantes Unidos xG
54%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–110%
0–010%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: UCV Moquegua 1.3 – 1.0 Comerciantes Unidos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
UCV Moquegua to win✗
46%
2.16
2.14
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.71
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT UCV Moquegua / FT UCV Moquegua✗
25%
3.94
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.83
–
Form
UCV Moquegua – last 6
DDWLLL
12 Jul
vs Deportivo Garcilaso
0–0
D
29 Jun
@ FBC Melgar
0–0
D
21 Jun
vs Bentín Tacna Heroica
3–2
W
29 May
@ Atletico Grau
0–1
L
17 May
@ Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0–1
L
3 May
@ Alianza Lima
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Comerciantes Unidos – last 6
DLLDLL
27 Jun
vs Juan Pablo II College
0–0
D
11 Jun
@ Deportiva Agropecuaria
0–2
L
30 May
@ Sport Boys
0–1
L
25 May
vs Deportivo Garcilaso
0–0
D
17 May
@ ADT
0–2
L
2 May
@ Cienciano
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between UCV Moquegua and Comerciantes Unidos.
What is the prediction for UCV Moquegua vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win UCV Moquegua vs Comerciantes Unidos?
On our numbers UCV Moquegua have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Comerciantes Unidos 31%.
How many goals will there be in UCV Moquegua vs Comerciantes Unidos?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UCV Moquegua vs Comerciantes Unidos?
Our predicted score is UCV Moquegua 1–1 Comerciantes Unidos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is UCV Moquegua vs Comerciantes Unidos?
UCV Moquegua vs Comerciantes Unidos (Primera División) kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio 25 de Noviembre.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
