Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Cienciano to win @ 1.91 – our chance 65% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCienciano to win ✗65% · @1.91
Double chanceCienciano or draw ✗85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 8.79
Cienciano vs FBC Melgar preview and prediction
The match
Cienciano host FBC Melgar in the Primera División on Saturday 18 July, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega. Cienciano are 12th with 17 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while FBC Melgar sit 5th on 29 points (in the top half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Cienciano's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to ADT 2–3 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
FBC Melgar's last 5: DLWDW Most recently they drew with UCV Moquegua 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Cienciano arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.1 for Cienciano and 0.9 for FBC Melgar. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations.
Value angle: Cienciano to win at 1.91 – 65% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Cienciano or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Cienciano 2–0 FBC Melgar. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cienciano65%fair 1.54 · @1.91
Draw20%fair 4.90 · @3.60
FBC Melgar15%fair 6.88 · @3.70
2.94Expected goals
2.07Cienciano xG
0.87FBC Melgar xG
60%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Cienciano 2.1 – 0.9 FBC Melgar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cienciano to win✗
65%
1.54
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Cienciano or draw✗
85%
1.17
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.38
Half-time result
Cienciano ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cienciano / FT Cienciano✗
42%
2.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
8.79
–
Form
Cienciano – last 6
LWWWWD
10 Jul
vs ADT
2–3
L
29 Jun
@ Cusco
2–1
W
22 Jun
vs Deportivo Garcilaso
2–1
W
14 Jun
@ Deportivo Binacional
2–0
W
31 May
vs Sporting Cristal
3–2
W
27 May
vs Juventud
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
FBC Melgar – last 6
DLWDWL
29 Jun
vs UCV Moquegua
0–0
D
12 Jun
@ Tacna Heroica
2–3
L
31 May
vs Alianza Atletico
3–1
W
22 May
@ Juan Pablo II College
1–1
D
4 May
vs UTC Cajamarca
2–0
W
28 Apr
@ Deportivo Garcilaso
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cienciano and FBC Melgar.
What is the prediction for Cienciano vs FBC Melgar?
Our pick is Cienciano or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Cienciano vs FBC Melgar?
On our numbers Cienciano have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and FBC Melgar 15%.
How many goals will there be in Cienciano vs FBC Melgar?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cienciano vs FBC Melgar?
Our predicted score is Cienciano 2–0 FBC Melgar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Cienciano vs FBC Melgar?
Cienciano vs FBC Melgar (Primera División) kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
