SC Freiburg host Derby in the Friendlies Clubs on Friday 24 July, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT).
Form guide
SC Freiburg's last 5: LLWLD Most recently they lost to Aston Villa 0–3 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Derby's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat Alfreton Town 2–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.2 for SC Freiburg and 0.8 for Derby. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was SC Freiburg to win – a 55% chance at odds of 3.00, above our fair price of 1.80, so there is value in it. Predicted score: SC Freiburg 1–0 Derby. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
SC Freiburg55%fair 1.80 · @3.00
Draw14%fair 7.06 · @4.00
Derby30%fair 3.29 · @1.91
2.00Expected goals
1.24SC Freiburg xG
0.76Derby xG
57%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
0–014%
1–113%
2–010%
0–110%
2–18%
From our goals model: SC Freiburg 1.2 – 0.8 Derby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
SC Freiburg to win✓
55%
1.80
3.00 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
86%
1.16
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.29
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
86%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT SC Freiburg / FT SC Freiburg✗
28%
3.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.95
–
Form
SC Freiburg – last 6
LLWLDW
20 May
vs Aston Villa
0–3
L
10 May
@ Hamburger SV
2–3
L
7 May
vs SC Braga
3–1
W
30 Apr
@ SC Braga
1–2
L
23 Apr
@ VfB Stuttgart
1–1
D
19 Apr
vs 1. FC Heidenheim
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Derby – last 6
WLLWLW
17 Jul
@ Alfreton Town
2–0
W
2 May
vs Sheffield Utd
1–2
L
21 Apr
@ Norwich
1–2
L
6 Apr
vs Stoke City
2–0
W
3 Apr
@ Coventry
2–3
L
16 Mar
@ Portsmouth
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between SC Freiburg and Derby.
Our pick is SC Freiburg to win with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 3.00.
Who will win SC Freiburg vs Derby?
On our numbers SC Freiburg have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Derby 30%.
How many goals will there be in SC Freiburg vs Derby?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for SC Freiburg vs Derby?
Our predicted score is SC Freiburg 1–0 Derby, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is SC Freiburg vs Derby?
SC Freiburg vs Derby (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Friday 24 July 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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