Both teams scoreNot both teams to score55% · fair 1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–015% · fair 6.52
Iceland vs Luxembourg preview and prediction
The match
Iceland host Luxembourg in the UEFA Nations League on Monday 16 November, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT). Iceland are 1st with 8 points from 4 games, while Luxembourg sit 4th on 3 points.
Form guide
Iceland's last 5: DWWDL Most recently they drew with Estonia 0–0 away. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Luxembourg's last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to Bulgaria 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 29 September 2026, finished Luxembourg 0–3 Iceland.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Iceland and 0.7 for Luxembourg. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 45%.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance. Predicted score: Iceland 1–0 Luxembourg. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Iceland64%fair 1.56
Draw17%fair 6.04
Luxembourg19%fair 5.14
2.42Expected goals
1.73Iceland xG
0.69Luxembourg xG
45%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Iceland 1.7 – 0.7 Luxembourg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Iceland
Luxembourg
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average
+35%
-12%
Goals conceded vs average
-34%
+17%
Our expected goals here
1.92
0.72
Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
On our numbers Iceland have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Luxembourg 19%.
How many goals will there be in Iceland vs Luxembourg?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Iceland vs Luxembourg?
Our predicted score is Iceland 1–0 Luxembourg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Iceland vs Luxembourg?
Iceland vs Luxembourg (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Monday 16 November 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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