Germany vs Netherlands prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.56
Value bet: Germany to win @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Germany 1.8 – 0.9 Netherlands expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Germany are clear favourites at home with a 60% chance of winning, against 20% for Netherlands.
Germany have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (1W 3D 2L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.8 per game. Netherlands have 12 points from their last 6 (3W 3D 0L), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded. Netherlands come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.7 goals (1.8 for Germany, 0.9 for Netherlands). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 57%, both teams to score at 58%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (12%), 2–0 (11%), 1–1 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Germany have won 0, Netherlands have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.56 is close to our fair price of 1.54. For a bigger price, Germany to win at 1.80 is our value angle (60% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Germany to win | 60% | 1.66 | 1.80 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win | 80% | 1.24 | 1.14 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 58% | 1.71 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.75 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 65% | 1.54 | 1.56 |
| Half-time result | Germany ahead at half-time | 42% | 2.37 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Germany / FT Germany | 37% | 2.73 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 | 12% | 8.26 | – |
Form
Germany – last 6
| 4 Oct | @ Greece | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Oct | vs Serbia | 2–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Greece | 0–1 | L |
| 24 Sep | @ Netherlands | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Jun | vs Paraguay | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Jun | @ Ecuador | 1–2 | L |
Netherlands – last 6
| 4 Oct | vs Serbia | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Oct | @ Greece | 2–2 | D |
| 27 Sep | @ Serbia | 2–1 | W |
| 24 Sep | vs Germany | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Jun | vs Morocco | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Jun | @ Tunisia | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
| 24 Sep 2026 | Netherlands v Germany | 1–1 |
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Netherlands | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 2 |  Greece | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 |  Germany | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 4 |  Serbia | 4 | -5 | 0 |
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What is the prediction for Germany vs Netherlands?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.56.
Who will win Germany vs Netherlands?
On our numbers Germany have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Netherlands 20%.
How many goals will there be in Germany vs Netherlands?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is Germany vs Netherlands?
Germany vs Netherlands (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Monday 16 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.