Segunda División RFEF Play Offs · Spain
Poblense vs Numancia prediction & analysis
Poblense or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
Value bet: Draw @ 3.00 – our chance 58% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +74%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Poblense 0.9 – 0.8 Numancia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Poblense and Numancia on our numbers – 24% for the home side, 18% for the visitors and 58% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Poblense have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (4W 0D 2L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.5 per game. Numancia have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded.
We expect around 1.6 goals (0.9 for Poblense, 0.8 for Numancia). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 0–0 (19%), 1–0 (17%), 0–1 (15%).
In their last 1 meeting, Poblense have won 1, Numancia have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Poblense or draw at a 82% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.28 is better than our fair price of 1.22, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Draw at 3.00 is our value angle (58% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Draw ✗ | 58% | 1.73 | 3.00 ▲ |
| Double chance | Poblense or draw ✓ | 82% | 1.22 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 63% | 1.59 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Under 1.5 goals ✗ | 51% | 1.96 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 69% | 1.46 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 92% | 1.09 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 55% | 1.82 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✗ | 27% | 3.73 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–0 ✗ | 19% | 5.17 | – |
Form
Poblense – last 6
| 10 May | @ Numancia | 1–0 | W |
| 3 May | @ Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 1–3 | L |
| 26 Apr | vs Porreres | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Apr | @ Terrassa | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Apr | vs Torrent | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Apr | @ Sant Andreu | 0–2 | L |
Numancia – last 6
| 10 May | vs Poblense | 0–1 | L |
| 3 May | vs Marino de Luanco | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Apr | @ Langreo | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Apr | @ Sámano | 3–0 | W |
| 29 Mar | vs Sarriana | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Mar | @ Coruxo | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 10 May 2026 | Numancia v Poblense | 0–1 |
More Segunda División RFEF Play Offs predictions
Deportiva Minera0
CD Coria1
Atlético Baleares1
Coruxo1
SS Reyes1
Alcoyano1
Deportivo Alavés II0
Real Jaén1
SD Logroñés1
Castellón II0
Águilas2
Utebo1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Poblense vs Numancia?
Our pick is Poblense or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Poblense vs Numancia?
On our numbers Poblense have a 24% chance of winning, the draw 58% and Numancia 18%.
How many goals will there be in Poblense vs Numancia?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 37% of the time on our projection.
When is Poblense vs Numancia?
Poblense vs Numancia (Segunda División RFEF Play Offs) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.