Segunda División RFEF Play Offs · Spain
SD Logroñés vs Castellón II prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.62 – our chance 67% vs 62% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: SD Logroñés 2.2 – 1.9 Castellón II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
SD Logroñés hold the edge on home soil with a 45% chance of winning, against 34% for Castellón II.
SD Logroñés have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (3W 0D 3L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.5 per game. Castellón II have 4 points from their last 6 (1W 1D 4L), averaging 1.5 scored and 2.2 conceded. SD Logroñés come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 4.0 goals (2.2 for SD Logroñés, 1.9 for Castellón II). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (8%), 1–1 (7%), 2–2 (7%).
In their last 1 meeting, SD Logroñés have won 1, Castellón II have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 5.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 85% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.18. For a bigger price, Over 2.5 goals at 1.62 is our value angle (67% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | SD Logroñés to win ✓ | 45% | 2.21 | 2.20 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.53 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.20 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 67% | 1.49 | 1.62 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 53% | 1.89 | 1.50 |
| Half-time result | SD Logroñés ahead at half-time ✗ | 37% | 2.71 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT SD Logroñés / FT SD Logroñés ✗ | 28% | 3.54 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 8% | 12.83 | – |
Form
SD Logroñés – last 6
| 10 May | @ Castellón II | 3–2 | W |
| 3 May | vs Tudelano | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Apr | @ Alfaro | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Apr | vs Real Zaragoza II | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Apr | vs Basconia | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Mar | vs Mutilvera | 1–3 | L |
Castellón II – last 6
| 10 May | vs SD Logroñés | 2–3 | L |
| 3 May | vs Girona II | 4–2 | W |
| 26 Apr | @ Barbastro | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Apr | vs Olot | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Apr | @ Torrent | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Mar | vs Porreres | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
| 10 May 2026 | Castellón II v SD Logroñés | 2–3 |
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Utebo1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for SD Logroñés vs Castellón II?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win SD Logroñés vs Castellón II?
On our numbers SD Logroñés have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Castellón II 34%.
How many goals will there be in SD Logroñés vs Castellón II?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
When is SD Logroñés vs Castellón II?
SD Logroñés vs Castellón II (Segunda División RFEF Play Offs) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.