Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.65 – our chance 66% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlbania to win ✗67% · @1.50
Double chanceAlbania or draw ✗90% · @1.04
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗25% · fair 3.96
Albania vs Luxembourg preview and prediction
The match
Albania host Luxembourg in the Friendlies on Saturday 6 June, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Air Albania.
Form guide
Albania's last 3: LLL Most recently they lost to Israel 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Luxembourg's last 3: LWW Most recently they lost to Italy 0–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.3 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Luxembourg arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 1.4 for Albania and 0.3 for Luxembourg. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 1.65 – 66% on our numbers against 61% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 83% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Albania 1–0 Luxembourg. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Albania67%fair 1.49 · @1.50
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.40
Luxembourg10%fair 9.52 · @7.00
1.71Expected goals
1.39Albania xG
0.32Luxembourg xG
43%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–025%
0–018%
2–018%
3–08%
1–18%
0–16%
From our goals model: Albania 1.4 – 0.3 Luxembourg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Albania to win✗
67%
1.49
1.50
Double chance
Albania or draw✗
90%
1.12
1.04
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.65 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
51%
1.95
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Albania / FT Albania✗
39%
2.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
25%
3.96
–
Form
Albania – last 3
LLL
3 Jun
vs Israel
0–1
L
31 Mar
@ Ukraine
0–1
L
26 Mar
@ Poland
1–2
L
0.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Luxembourg – last 3
LWW
3 Jun
vs Italy
0–1
L
31 Mar
vs Malta
3–0
W
26 Mar
@ Malta
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Albania and Luxembourg.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Albania vs Luxembourg?
On our numbers Albania have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Luxembourg 10%.
How many goals will there be in Albania vs Luxembourg?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Albania vs Luxembourg?
Our predicted score is Albania 1–0 Luxembourg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Albania vs Luxembourg?
Albania vs Luxembourg (Friendlies) kicks off on Saturday 6 June 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Air Albania.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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