Manchester United vs Atletico Madrid prediction & analysis
66%
Footrivo pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
2
Value bet: Atletico Madrid to win @ 2.98 – our chance 39% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Madrid to win ✗39% · @2.98
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓66% · @1.48
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.13
Manchester United vs Atletico Madrid preview and prediction
The match
The Friendlies Clubs sees Manchester United take on Atletico Madrid on Saturday 1 August, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Strawberry Arena.
Form guide
Manchester United's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Rosenborg 5–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Atletico Madrid's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Getafe 4–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 1.7 for Manchester United and 1.7 for Atletico Madrid. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score in 66% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Manchester United 39%, draw 22%, Atletico Madrid 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (66%) at 1.48.
Value angle: Atletico Madrid to win at 2.98 – 39% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 66% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Manchester United 1–1 Atletico Madrid. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Manchester United39%fair 2.59 · @2.08
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.55
Atletico Madrid39%fair 2.56 · @2.98
3.39Expected goals
1.69Manchester United xG
1.70Atletico Madrid xG
66%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
1–28%
2–18%
2–27%
0–16%
1–06%
From our goals model: Manchester United 1.7 – 1.7 Atletico Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Madrid to win✗
39%
2.56
2.98 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
66%
1.52
1.48
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
58%
1.71
1.55
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
37%
2.71
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Madrid / FT Atletico Madrid✗
23%
4.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.13
–
Form
Manchester United – last 6
WLWWWL
24 Jul
@ Rosenborg
5–0
W
18 Jul
vs Wrexham
0–1
L
24 May
@ Brighton
3–0
W
17 May
vs Nottingham Forest
3–2
W
27 Apr
vs Brentford
2–1
W
13 Apr
vs Leeds
1–2
L
2.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Atletico Madrid – last 6
WLWWLD
29 Jul
vs Getafe
4–1
W
24 May
@ Villarreal
1–5
L
17 May
vs Girona
1–0
W
12 May
@ Osasuna
2–1
W
5 May
@ Arsenal
0–1
L
29 Apr
vs Arsenal
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Manchester United and Atletico Madrid.
What is the prediction for Manchester United vs Atletico Madrid?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Manchester United vs Atletico Madrid?
On our numbers Manchester United have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Atletico Madrid 39%.
How many goals will there be in Manchester United vs Atletico Madrid?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Manchester United vs Atletico Madrid?
Our predicted score is Manchester United 1–1 Atletico Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Manchester United vs Atletico Madrid?
Manchester United vs Atletico Madrid (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Saturday 1 August 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Strawberry Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Lazio6
Avellino3
Levante2
Albacete1
Alcorcon2
Getafe II0
Lucko1
Segesta Sisak1
Eibar5
Arenas Getxo0
Bayer Leverkusen3
Rot-Weiß Essen0
Moreirense2
Amarante0
De Graafschap1
Excelsior5