Good pick · fair odds 1.57 · bookmaker 1.85 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.85Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultExcelsior to win ✓64% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✓86% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · fair 1.53
GoalsOver 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–3 ✗6% · fair 16.85
De Graafschap vs Excelsior preview and prediction
The match
The Friendlies Clubs sees De Graafschap take on Excelsior on Saturday 1 August, kicking off at 10:30 (WAT).
Form guide
De Graafschap's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Kifisia 4–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Excelsior's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Heracles 5–3 away. On the road they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 3.5 goals a game.
Excelsior arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 5.4 goals: 2.1 for De Graafschap and 3.4 for Excelsior. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 91% likely and both teams score in 65% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: De Graafschap 23%, draw 14%, Excelsior 64%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Excelsior to win – a 64% chance at odds of 1.85, above our fair price of 1.57, so there is value in it. Predicted score: De Graafschap 2–3 Excelsior. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
De Graafschap23%fair 4.41 · @2.95
Draw14%fair 7.31 · @4.20
Excelsior64%fair 1.57 · @1.85
5.44Expected goals
2.08De Graafschap xG
3.36Excelsior xG
65%Both score
91%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–36%
1–36%
2–25%
1–25%
2–45%
1–45%
From our goals model: De Graafschap 2.1 – 3.4 Excelsior expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Excelsior to win✓
64%
1.57
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
86%
1.16
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
97%
1.03
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
Half-time result
Excelsior ahead at half-time✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Excelsior / FT Excelsior✓
43%
2.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–3✗
6%
16.85
–
Form
De Graafschap – last 6
WLLLWL
25 Jul
vs Kifisia
4–2
W
17 Jul
vs Telstar
3–6
L
12 Jul
vs AEK Athens FC
1–2
L
3 Jul
@ Heerenveen
2–7
L
27 Jun
@ Utrecht
2–1
W
6 May
@ Almere City FC
1–3
L
2.2Scored / game
3.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Excelsior – last 6
WWWWWW
24 Jul
@ Heracles
5–3
W
18 Jul
@ NAC Breda
3–1
W
11 Jul
@ Dordrecht
2–0
W
4 Jul
vs Cambuur
3–2
W
17 May
@ Sparta Rotterdam
3–2
W
26 Apr
vs Utrecht
5–0
W
3.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between De Graafschap and Excelsior.
What is the prediction for De Graafschap vs Excelsior?
Our pick is Excelsior to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win De Graafschap vs Excelsior?
On our numbers De Graafschap have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Excelsior 64%.
How many goals will there be in De Graafschap vs Excelsior?
We expect about 5.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 91% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for De Graafschap vs Excelsior?
Our predicted score is De Graafschap 2–3 Excelsior, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 5.4 goals in total.
When is De Graafschap vs Excelsior?
De Graafschap vs Excelsior (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Saturday 1 August 2026 at 10:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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