Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
O2.5
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.73 – our chance 64% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLazio to win ✓60% · @1.67
Double chanceLazio or draw ✓82% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.32
Lazio vs Avellino preview and prediction
The match
Avellino travel to face Lazio in the Friendlies Clubs on Saturday 1 August (08:30 WAT).
Form guide
Lazio's last 5: WLLWD Most recently they beat Flaminia 6–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Avellino's last 5: WWLWL Most recently they beat Sambenedettese 5–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.9 goals: 2.5 for Lazio and 1.4 for Avellino. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lazio 60%, draw 22%, Avellino 18%.
Safer route: Lazio or draw (82%) at 1.13.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 – 64% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 83% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Lazio 2–1 Avellino. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lazio60%fair 1.67 · @1.67
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.65
Avellino18%fair 5.48 · @4.50
3.91Expected goals
2.51Lazio xG
1.40Avellino xG
63%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
3–17%
1–17%
2–06%
2–26%
3–05%
From our goals model: Lazio 2.5 – 1.4 Avellino expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lazio to win✓
60%
1.67
1.67
Double chance
Lazio or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.58
1.67 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.73 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
1.40
Half-time result
Lazio ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lazio / FT Lazio✓
41%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.32
–
Form
Lazio – last 6
WLLWDL
26 Jul
vs Flaminia
6–0
W
17 May
@ AS Roma
0–2
L
13 May
vs Inter
0–2
L
4 May
@ Cremonese
2–1
W
27 Apr
vs Udinese
3–3
D
13 Apr
@ Fiorentina
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Avellino – last 6
WWLWLL
26 Jul
@ Sambenedettese
5–0
W
22 Jul
vs Scafatese
3–1
W
12 May
@ Catanzaro
0–3
L
8 May
vs Modena
1–0
W
1 May
@ Empoli
0–1
L
5 Apr
@ Palermo
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lazio and Avellino.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Lazio vs Avellino?
On our numbers Lazio have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Avellino 18%.
How many goals will there be in Lazio vs Avellino?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lazio vs Avellino?
Our predicted score is Lazio 2–1 Avellino, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.
When is Lazio vs Avellino?
Lazio vs Avellino (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Saturday 1 August 2026 at 08:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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