Wanderers host Penarol in the Primera División Apertura on Sunday 26 April, with kick-off at 23:00 (WAT). Wanderers are 10th with 16 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Penarol sit 5th on 22 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Wanderers's last 5: LLDWL Most recently they lost to Albion FC 1–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.4 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Penarol's last 5: DLLDL Most recently they drew with Juventud 2–2 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.7 for Wanderers and 1.9 for Penarol. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 50%.
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Wanderers 0–1 Penarol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Wanderers11%fair 9.36 · @5.50
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @3.50
Penarol64%fair 1.57 · @1.61
2.55Expected goals
0.68Wanderers xG
1.87Penarol xG
50%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–214%
1–110%
1–29%
0–39%
0–08%
From our goals model: Wanderers 0.7 – 1.9 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win
64%
1.57
1.61
Double chance
Penarol or draw
89%
1.12
1.09
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
50%
1.98
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
70%
1.42
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
54%
1.84
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
75%
1.34
1.25
Half-time result
Penarol ahead at half-time
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol
42%
2.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
15%
6.83
–
Form
Wanderers – last 5
LLDWL
25 Mar
@ Albion FC
1–2
L
14 Mar
@ Club Nacional
0–2
L
7 Mar
vs Deportivo Maldonado
0–0
D
1 Mar
@ Central Espanol
1–0
W
22 Feb
vs Atletico Torque
0–4
L
0.4Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Penarol – last 6
DLLDLW
21 Apr
vs Juventud
2–2
D
17 Apr
vs Platense
1–2
L
14 Apr
vs Liverpool Montevideo
0–2
L
10 Apr
@ Santa Fe
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Racing Montevideo
1–2
L
26 Mar
@ Boston River
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Wanderers and Penarol.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Wanderers vs Penarol?
On our numbers Wanderers have a 11% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Penarol 64%.
How many goals will there be in Wanderers vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Wanderers vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Wanderers 0–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Wanderers vs Penarol?
Wanderers vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
