Cerro Largo vs Racing Montevideo prediction & analysis
67%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.45
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultRacing Montevideo to win52% · @1.98
Double chanceEither team to win78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–113% · fair 7.45
Cerro Largo vs Racing Montevideo preview and prediction
The match
Cerro Largo host Racing Montevideo in the Primera División Apertura on Sunday 26 April, with kick-off at 19:30 (WAT) at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla. Cerro Largo are 15th with 9 points from 13 games (in the bottom three), while Racing Montevideo sit 6th on 19 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Cerro Largo's last 5: LDDLW Most recently they lost to Boston River 0–1 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Racing Montevideo's last 5: WDWLW Most recently they beat Penarol 2–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Racing Montevideo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.9 for Cerro Largo and 1.5 for Racing Montevideo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cerro Largo 26%, draw 22%, Racing Montevideo 52%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.00 – 54% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Cerro Largo 1–1 Racing Montevideo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cerro Largo26%fair 3.86 · @3.80
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.10
Racing Montevideo52%fair 1.93 · @1.98
2.39Expected goals
0.93Cerro Largo xG
1.46Racing Montevideo xG
54%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
1–112%
0–210%
0–09%
1–29%
1–08%
From our goals model: Cerro Largo 0.9 – 1.5 Racing Montevideo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Racing Montevideo to win
52%
1.93
1.98
Double chance
Either team to win
78%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
54%
1.84
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
67%
1.50
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
59%
1.70
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
79%
1.27
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Racing Montevideo / FT Racing Montevideo
30%
3.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
13%
7.45
–
Form
Cerro Largo – last 6
LDDLWW
20 Apr
@ Boston River
0–1
L
11 Apr
vs Cerro
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Albion FC
2–2
D
25 Mar
@ Club Nacional
0–3
L
20 Mar
vs Deportivo Maldonado
3–1
W
15 Mar
@ Central Espanol
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Racing Montevideo – last 6
WDWLWW
29 Mar
@ Penarol
2–1
W
26 Mar
vs Progreso
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Cerro
1–0
W
5 Mar
@ Boston River
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Albion FC
3–1
W
21 Feb
vs Danubio
4–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cerro Largo and Racing Montevideo.
What is the prediction for Cerro Largo vs Racing Montevideo?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Cerro Largo vs Racing Montevideo?
On our numbers Cerro Largo have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Racing Montevideo 52%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro Largo vs Racing Montevideo?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro Largo vs Racing Montevideo?
Our predicted score is Cerro Largo 1–1 Racing Montevideo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Cerro Largo vs Racing Montevideo?
Cerro Largo vs Racing Montevideo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
