New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC prediction & analysis
85%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
O2.5
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.65 – our chance 68% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNew York Red Bulls to win ✗39% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓70% · @1.53
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · @1.65
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 14.48
New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC preview and prediction
The match
New York Red Bulls host New York City FC in the US Open Cup on Thursday 30 April, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT) at Sports Illustrated Stadium.
Form guide
New York Red Bulls's last 5: LDWDW Most recently they lost to FC Cincinnati 0–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
New York City FC's last 5: DLWLD Most recently they drew with FC Cincinnati 4–4 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.2 goals: 2.1 for New York Red Bulls and 2.1 for New York City FC. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 68% and both teams to score at 70%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: New York Red Bulls 39%, draw 22%, New York City FC 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (70%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Over 2.5 goals at 1.65 – 68% on our numbers against 61% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 85% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: New York Red Bulls 2–2 New York City FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
New York Red Bulls39%fair 2.56 · @2.20
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.60
New York City FC39%fair 2.58 · @2.80
4.23Expected goals
2.12New York Red Bulls xG
2.11New York City FC xG
70%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–27%
2–17%
1–27%
1–17%
3–25%
2–35%
From our goals model: New York Red Bulls 2.1 – 2.1 New York City FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
New York Red Bulls to win✗
39%
2.56
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
70%
1.44
1.53 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.65 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
1.45
Half-time result
New York Red Bulls ahead at half-time✗
34%
2.94
–
Half-time / full-time
HT New York Red Bulls / FT New York Red Bulls✗
25%
4.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
7%
14.48
–
Form
New York Red Bulls – last 6
LDWDWL
26 Apr
@ FC Cincinnati
0–2
L
23 Apr
vs DC United
4–4
D
16 Apr
vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds
3–1
W
12 Apr
@ Inter Miami
2–2
D
5 Apr
vs FC Cincinnati
4–2
W
22 Mar
@ Charlotte
1–6
L
2.3Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
New York City FC – last 6
DLWLDW
23 Apr
vs FC Cincinnati
4–4
D
19 Apr
vs Charlotte
1–2
L
15 Apr
@ Westchester SC
5–2
W
12 Apr
@ Vancouver Whitecaps
0–2
L
5 Apr
vs St. Louis City
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs Colorado Rapids
3–1
W
2.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between New York Red Bulls and New York City FC.
What is the prediction for New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC?
On our numbers New York Red Bulls have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 22% and New York City FC 39%.
How many goals will there be in New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC?
We expect about 4.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 70% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC?
Our predicted score is New York Red Bulls 2–2 New York City FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.2 goals in total.
When is New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC?
New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC (US Open Cup) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Sports Illustrated Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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