Chicago Fire vs St. Louis City prediction & analysis
80%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Chicago Fire to win @ 1.94 – our chance 59% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultChicago Fire to win ✗59% · @1.94
Double chanceEither team to win ✓83% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.19
Chicago Fire vs St. Louis City preview and prediction
The match
The US Open Cup sees Chicago Fire take on St. Louis City on Thursday 30 April, kicking off at 01:00 (WAT) at Soldier Field.
Form guide
Chicago Fire's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Sporting Kansas City 5–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
St. Louis City's last 5: LLWDD Most recently they lost to San Jose Earthquakes 2–3 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Chicago Fire arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.0 for Chicago Fire and 1.2 for St. Louis City. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 60% and both teams to score at 62%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Chicago Fire 59%, draw 17%, St. Louis City 23%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Chicago Fire to win at 1.94 – 59% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Chicago Fire 2–1 St. Louis City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chicago Fire59%fair 1.68 · @1.94
Draw17%fair 5.85 · @3.60
St. Louis City23%fair 4.27 · @3.35
3.23Expected goals
2.05Chicago Fire xG
1.18St. Louis City xG
62%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–110%
2–08%
1–08%
3–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Chicago Fire 2.0 – 1.2 St. Louis City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chicago Fire to win✗
59%
1.68
1.94 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
83%
1.21
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.68
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
1.45
Half-time result
Chicago Fire ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chicago Fire / FT Chicago Fire✗
36%
2.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.19
–
Form
Chicago Fire – last 6
WDWWWL
26 Apr
vs Sporting Kansas City
5–0
W
19 Apr
@ FC Cincinnati
3–3
D
15 Apr
@ Detroit City
2–1
W
12 Apr
vs Atlanta United FC
1–0
W
5 Apr
vs Nashville SC
1–0
W
9 Mar
@ Orlando City II
1–2
L
2.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
St. Louis City – last 6
LLWDDW
26 Apr
vs San Jose Earthquakes
2–3
L
19 Apr
@ Seattle Sounders
1–4
L
16 Apr
vs FC Tulsa
4–0
W
12 Apr
@ FC Dallas
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ New York City FC
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs New England Revolution
3–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chicago Fire and St. Louis City.
What is the prediction for Chicago Fire vs St. Louis City?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Chicago Fire vs St. Louis City?
On our numbers Chicago Fire have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 17% and St. Louis City 23%.
How many goals will there be in Chicago Fire vs St. Louis City?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chicago Fire vs St. Louis City?
Our predicted score is Chicago Fire 2–1 St. Louis City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Chicago Fire vs St. Louis City?
Chicago Fire vs St. Louis City (US Open Cup) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Soldier Field.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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