Value bet: Houston Dynamo to win @ 1.68 – our chance 64% vs 60% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultHouston Dynamo to win ✗64% · @1.68
Double chanceHouston Dynamo or draw ✓83% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.97
Houston Dynamo vs Louisville City preview and prediction
The match
The US Open Cup sees Houston Dynamo take on Louisville City on Thursday 30 April, kicking off at 01:00 (WAT) at Shell Energy Stadium.
Form guide
Houston Dynamo's last 5: LWWWL Most recently they lost to Austin 0–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Louisville City's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Fort Wayne 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Louisville City arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.0 for Houston Dynamo and 0.9 for Louisville City. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Houston Dynamo 64%, draw 19%, Louisville City 17%.
Safer route: Houston Dynamo or draw (83%) at 1.13.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Houston Dynamo to win at 1.68 – 64% on our numbers against 60% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Houston Dynamo 2–0 Louisville City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Houston Dynamo64%fair 1.57 · @1.68
Draw19%fair 5.16 · @3.70
Louisville City17%fair 5.86 · @4.50
2.88Expected goals
1.98Houston Dynamo xG
0.89Louisville City xG
58%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Houston Dynamo 2.0 – 0.9 Louisville City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Houston Dynamo to win✗
64%
1.57
1.68 ▲
Double chance
Houston Dynamo or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.74
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.87
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.36
Half-time result
Houston Dynamo ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Houston Dynamo / FT Houston Dynamo✗
40%
2.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.97
–
Form
Houston Dynamo – last 6
LWWWLL
26 Apr
@ Austin
0–2
L
23 Apr
vs San Diego
1–0
W
19 Apr
@ Orlando City SC
1–0
W
16 Apr
vs El Paso Locomotive
4–1
W
12 Apr
@ Colorado Rapids
2–6
L
5 Apr
vs Seattle Sounders
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Louisville City – last 6
WWDWWW
26 Apr
vs Fort Wayne
3–1
W
15 Apr
vs Austin
2–1
W
10 Apr
@ Loudoun United
3–3
D
2 Apr
@ Lexington
2–0
W
29 Mar
@ Brooklyn
1–0
W
19 Mar
vs Southern Indiana
2–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Houston Dynamo and Louisville City.
What is the prediction for Houston Dynamo vs Louisville City?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Houston Dynamo vs Louisville City?
On our numbers Houston Dynamo have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Louisville City 17%.
How many goals will there be in Houston Dynamo vs Louisville City?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Houston Dynamo vs Louisville City?
Our predicted score is Houston Dynamo 2–0 Louisville City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Houston Dynamo vs Louisville City?
Houston Dynamo vs Louisville City (US Open Cup) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Shell Energy Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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