Greece vs Italy prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
Value bet: Italy to win @ 3.55 – our chance 32% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Greece 1.2 – 0.9 Italy expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Greece hold the edge on home soil with a 47% chance of winning, against 32% for Italy.
Greece have taken 2 points from their last 3 matches (0W 2D 1L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.0 per game. Italy have 6 points from their last 2 (2W 0D 0L), averaging 1.5 scored and 0.0 conceded. Italy come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.1 goals (1.2 for Greece, 0.9 for Italy). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 58% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (13%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is close to our fair price of 1.28. For a bigger price, Italy to win at 3.55 is our value angle (32% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Greece to win ✗ | 47% | 2.13 | 2.00 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 54% | 1.85 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 67% | 1.50 | 1.30 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 58% | 1.71 | 1.85 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.30 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 49% | 2.05 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Greece / FT Greece ✗ | 24% | 4.14 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 15% | 6.72 | – |
Form
Greece – last 3
| 4 Jun | @ Sweden | 2–2 | D |
| 31 Mar | @ Hungary | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Mar | vs Paraguay | 0–1 | L |
Italy – last 2
| 3 Jun | @ Luxembourg | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Mar | vs Northern Ireland | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Greece and Italy.
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What is the prediction for Greece vs Italy?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Greece vs Italy?
On our numbers Greece have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Italy 32%.
How many goals will there be in Greece vs Italy?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Greece vs Italy?
Greece vs Italy (Friendlies) kicks off on Sunday 7 June 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Pankritio Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.