Kenya vs Lesotho prediction & analysis
Kenya to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Kenya 1.6 – 0.5 Lesotho expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Kenya are clear favourites at home with a 66% chance of winning, against 13% for Lesotho.
Kenya have taken 4 points from their last 2 matches (1W 1D 0L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.5 per game. Lesotho have 5 points from their last 3 (1W 2D 0L), averaging 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded.
We expect around 2.1 goals (1.6 for Kenya, 0.5 for Lesotho). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (19%), 2–0 (16%), 0–0 (12%).
In their last 1 meeting, Kenya have won 0, Lesotho have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Kenya to win at a 66% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.70 is better than our fair price of 1.51, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Kenya to win ✓ | 66% | 1.51 | 1.70 ▲ |
| Double chance | Kenya or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.10 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 54% | 1.86 | 1.60 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 64% | 1.57 | 1.45 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 62% | 1.61 | 1.55 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 81% | 1.24 | 1.18 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.19 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Kenya / FT Kenya ✓ | 40% | 2.50 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 19% | 5.23 | – |
Form
Kenya – last 2
| 4 Jun | @ Lesotho | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Mar | @ Grenada | 3–0 | W |
Lesotho – last 3
| 4 Jun | vs Kenya | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Mar | vs Seychelles | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Mar | @ Seychelles | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 4 Jun 2026 | Lesotho v Kenya | 1–1 |
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What is the prediction for Kenya vs Lesotho?
Our pick is Kenya to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Kenya vs Lesotho?
On our numbers Kenya have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Lesotho 13%.
How many goals will there be in Kenya vs Lesotho?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
When is Kenya vs Lesotho?
Kenya vs Lesotho (Friendlies) kicks off on Sunday 7 June 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.