Value bet: XV de Piracicaba to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultXV de Piracicaba to win ✗36% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.78
Nova Iguaçu vs XV de Piracicaba preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D sees Nova Iguaçu take on XV de Piracicaba on Sunday 7 June, kicking off at 21:00 (WAT) at Estadio Janio Moraes.
Form guide
Nova Iguaçu's last 5: LLWDD Most recently they lost to CFRJ Maricá 0–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
XV de Piracicaba's last 5: DDWWL Most recently they drew with Noroeste 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
XV de Piracicaba arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.0 for Nova Iguaçu and 1.1 for XV de Piracicaba. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nova Iguaçu 36%, draw 28%, XV de Piracicaba 36%.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.53.
Value angle: XV de Piracicaba to win at 3.10 – 36% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 50% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Nova Iguaçu 0–1 XV de Piracicaba. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nova Iguaçu36%fair 2.79 · @2.40
Draw28%fair 3.60 · @2.50
XV de Piracicaba36%fair 2.75 · @3.10
2.11Expected goals
1.05Nova Iguaçu xG
1.06XV de Piracicaba xG
50%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–013%
0–012%
1–27%
2–17%
From our goals model: Nova Iguaçu 1.0 – 1.1 XV de Piracicaba expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
XV de Piracicaba to win✗
36%
2.75
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
72%
1.38
1.40
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
21%
4.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.78
–
Form
Nova Iguaçu – last 6
LLWDDL
30 May
@ CFRJ Maricá
0–1
L
17 Mar
vs Fortaleza EC
0–1
L
12 Mar
@ Castanhal
4–0
W
26 Feb
vs Portuguesa RJ
1–1
D
24 Feb
@ Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1–1
D
16 Feb
vs CFRJ Maricá
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
XV de Piracicaba – last 6
DDWWLD
30 May
vs Noroeste
1–1
D
23 May
@ Velo Clube
1–1
D
15 Apr
@ Água Santa
1–0
W
9 Apr
vs Ituano
3–0
W
26 Mar
vs Votuporanguense
1–2
L
18 Mar
@ Ituano
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nova Iguaçu and XV de Piracicaba.
What is the prediction for Nova Iguaçu vs XV de Piracicaba?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Nova Iguaçu vs XV de Piracicaba?
On our numbers Nova Iguaçu have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 28% and XV de Piracicaba 36%.
How many goals will there be in Nova Iguaçu vs XV de Piracicaba?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nova Iguaçu vs XV de Piracicaba?
Our predicted score is Nova Iguaçu 0–1 XV de Piracicaba, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Nova Iguaçu vs XV de Piracicaba?
Nova Iguaçu vs XV de Piracicaba (Serie D) kicks off on Sunday 7 June 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Janio Moraes.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Serie D · Brazil · Estadio Janio Moraes
Blumenau0
Sao Jose1
Independiente FSJ0
Marcílio Dias0
Parnahyba1
Moto Club0
Sampaio Correa0
Iguatu1
Guarany de Bagé0
Cianorte1
Santa Catarina1
Cascavel0
São Luiz3
Joinville1
Capital Brasilia2
União Rondonópolis0