Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultRetrô to win ✗57% · @1.85
Double chanceRetrô or draw ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.19
Retrô vs Lagarto preview and prediction
The match
Lagarto travel to Arena Pernambuco in the Serie D on Sunday 24 May (21:30 WAT) to face Retrô.
Form guide
Retrô's last 5: WLWDL Most recently they beat Decisão 2–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Lagarto's last 3: DDL Most recently they drew with Sergipe 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Retrô arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.1 for Retrô and 1.1 for Lagarto. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score in 57% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Retrô 57%, draw 26%, Lagarto 17%.
Safer route: Retrô or draw (83%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.80.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Retrô or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Retrô 2–1 Lagarto. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Retrô57%fair 1.75 · @1.85
Draw26%fair 3.85 · @3.20
Lagarto17%fair 5.96 · @3.60
3.29Expected goals
2.14Retrô xG
1.15Lagarto xG
57%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–19%
2–09%
1–08%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Retrô 2.1 – 1.1 Lagarto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Retrô to win✗
57%
1.75
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Retrô or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
–
Half-time result
Retrô ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Retrô / FT Retrô✗
39%
2.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.19
–
Form
Retrô – last 6
WLWDLW
17 May
vs Decisão
2–1
W
4 May
vs Sergipe
1–3
L
30 Apr
vs America-RN
2–1
W
15 Apr
@ Ferroviario
1–1
D
9 Apr
@ Sport Recife
0–3
L
24 Mar
@ Imperatriz
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Lagarto – last 3
DDL
17 May
vs Sergipe
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Decisão
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs América SE
0–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Retrô and Lagarto.
Our pick is Retrô or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Retrô vs Lagarto?
On our numbers Retrô have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lagarto 17%.
How many goals will there be in Retrô vs Lagarto?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Retrô vs Lagarto?
Our predicted score is Retrô 2–1 Lagarto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Retrô vs Lagarto?
Retrô vs Lagarto (Serie D) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Pernambuco.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Serie D · Brazil · Arena Pernambuco
Guarany de Bagé0
Cascavel4
Azuriz2
Blumenau4
Oratório3
Tuna Luso3
ABC1
America-RN1
Araguaína1
Porto Velho1
Brasiliense1
Inhumas0
CRAC0
Uberlandia0
Decisão0
Serra Branca1