Value bet: Cascavel to win @ 2.38 – our chance 45% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCascavel to win ✓45% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.44
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗20% · fair 5.02
Guarany de Bagé vs Cascavel preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D sees Guarany de Bagé take on Cascavel on Sunday 24 May, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Guarany de Bagé's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Bagé 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.5 goals: 0.6 for Guarany de Bagé and 0.9 for Cascavel. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 81% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Guarany de Bagé 28%, draw 26%, Cascavel 45%.
Both teams to score: no (57%) at 1.50.
Value angle: Cascavel to win at 2.38 – 45% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 57% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Guarany de Bagé 0–0 Cascavel. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Guarany de Bagé28%fair 3.51 · @3.20
Draw26%fair 3.78 · @2.50
Cascavel45%fair 2.22 · @2.38
1.50Expected goals
0.61Guarany de Bagé xG
0.89Cascavel xG
43%Both score
19%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–022%
0–120%
1–014%
1–112%
0–29%
1–25%
From our goals model: Guarany de Bagé 0.6 – 0.9 Cascavel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cascavel to win✓
45%
2.22
2.38 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.36
1.44 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
93%
1.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
57%
1.75
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
29%
3.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
20%
5.02
–
Form
Guarany de Bagé – last 6
LLLLWW
21 May
vs Bagé
0–1
L
13 May
@ Brasil DE Pelotas
0–2
L
5 Apr
@ Cianorte
1–3
L
11 Mar
@ Ponte Preta
0–1
L
26 Feb
@ Caxias
1–0
W
21 Feb
@ Inter Santa Maria
1–0
W
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Cascavel – last 2
LW
17 May
@ Cianorte
0–1
L
5 Apr
vs Santa Catarina
1–0
W
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Guarany de Bagé and Cascavel.
What is the prediction for Guarany de Bagé vs Cascavel?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Guarany de Bagé vs Cascavel?
On our numbers Guarany de Bagé have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Cascavel 45%.
How many goals will there be in Guarany de Bagé vs Cascavel?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Guarany de Bagé vs Cascavel?
Our predicted score is Guarany de Bagé 0–0 Cascavel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is Guarany de Bagé vs Cascavel?
Guarany de Bagé vs Cascavel (Serie D) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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