Value bet: Aparecidense to win @ 3.40 – our chance 35% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLuverdense to win ✓38% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.40
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓12% · fair 8.38
Luverdense vs Aparecidense preview and prediction
The match
Luverdense host Aparecidense in the Serie D on Sunday 24 May, with kick-off at 22:00 (WAT) at Passo das Emas.
Form guide
Luverdense's last 3: LLW Most recently they lost to Primavera MG 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for Luverdense and 1.1 for Aparecidense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 54%.
Value angle: Aparecidense to win at 3.40 – 35% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 54% chance at odds of 2.00, above our fair price of 1.85, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Luverdense 1–1 Aparecidense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Luverdense38%fair 2.62 · @2.15
Draw27%fair 3.72 · @2.70
Aparecidense35%fair 2.86 · @3.40
2.29Expected goals
1.18Luverdense xG
1.11Aparecidense xG
54%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Luverdense 1.2 – 1.1 Aparecidense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Luverdense to win✓
38%
2.62
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.40
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Luverdense / FT Luverdense✗
21%
4.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
12%
8.38
–
Form
Luverdense – last 3
LLW
17 May
@ Primavera MG
0–1
L
2 May
@ Gama
0–4
L
15 Feb
@ Sport Sinop
1–0
W
0.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Aparecidense – last 2
DW
17 May
@ Inhumas
1–1
D
18 Feb
vs Centro Oeste
4–0
W
2.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Luverdense and Aparecidense.
What is the prediction for Luverdense vs Aparecidense?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Luverdense vs Aparecidense?
On our numbers Luverdense have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Aparecidense 35%.
How many goals will there be in Luverdense vs Aparecidense?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Luverdense vs Aparecidense?
Our predicted score is Luverdense 1–1 Aparecidense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Luverdense vs Aparecidense?
Luverdense vs Aparecidense (Serie D) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Passo das Emas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Serie D · Brazil · Passo das Emas
Guarany de Bagé0
Cascavel4
Azuriz2
Blumenau4
Oratório3
Tuna Luso3
ABC1
America-RN1
Araguaína1
Porto Velho1
Brasiliense1
Inhumas0
CRAC0
Uberlandia0
Decisão0
Serra Branca1