Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Aparecidense to win @ 1.95 – our chance 64% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAparecidense to win ✗64% · @1.95
Double chanceAparecidense or draw ✓86% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.80
Inhumas vs Aparecidense preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D sees Inhumas take on Aparecidense on Sunday 17 May, kicking off at 21:00 (WAT).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.7 for Inhumas and 1.8 for Aparecidense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 51%.
Value angle: Aparecidense to win at 1.95 – 64% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Aparecidense or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Inhumas 0–1 Aparecidense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Inhumas14%fair 6.92 · @3.50
Draw22%fair 4.55 · @2.90
Aparecidense64%fair 1.57 · @1.95
2.50Expected goals
0.71Inhumas xG
1.79Aparecidense xG
51%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–213%
1–110%
1–29%
0–08%
0–38%
From our goals model: Inhumas 0.7 – 1.8 Aparecidense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aparecidense to win✗
64%
1.57
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Aparecidense or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Aparecidense ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aparecidense / FT Aparecidense✗
40%
2.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.80
–
Form
Inhumas – last 1
L
11 Apr
@ Gama
0–2
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Aparecidense – last 1
W
18 Feb
vs Centro Oeste
4–0
W
4.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Inhumas and Aparecidense.
What is the prediction for Inhumas vs Aparecidense?
Our pick is Aparecidense or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Inhumas vs Aparecidense?
On our numbers Inhumas have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Aparecidense 64%.
How many goals will there be in Inhumas vs Aparecidense?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Inhumas vs Aparecidense?
Our predicted score is Inhumas 0–1 Aparecidense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Inhumas vs Aparecidense?
Inhumas vs Aparecidense (Serie D) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Serie D · Brazil
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