Value bet: Águia de Marabá to win @ 2.70 – our chance 40% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultÁguia de Marabá to win ✗40% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.46
Tuna Luso vs Águia de Marabá preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D sees Tuna Luso take on Águia de Marabá on Sunday 17 May, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Tuna Luso's last 4: DWLL Most recently they drew with Imperatriz 0–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Águia de Marabá's last 5: LDWWW Most recently they lost to Paysandu 1–5 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Águia de Marabá arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.4 for Tuna Luso and 1.6 for Águia de Marabá. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 54% of our simulations.
Value angle: Águia de Marabá to win at 2.70 – 40% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 54% chance at odds of 1.83. Predicted score: Tuna Luso 1–1 Águia de Marabá. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tuna Luso35%fair 2.88 · @2.40
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @2.90
Águia de Marabá40%fair 2.50 · @2.70
3.00Expected goals
1.44Tuna Luso xG
1.56Águia de Marabá xG
54%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Tuna Luso 1.4 – 1.6 Águia de Marabá expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Águia de Marabá to win✗
40%
2.50
2.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.52
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Águia de Marabá / FT Águia de Marabá✗
24%
4.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.46
–
Form
Tuna Luso – last 4
DWLL
5 Apr
vs Imperatriz
0–0
D
4 Mar
vs Tocantinópolis
4–1
W
20 Feb
@ Paysandu
1–5
L
15 Feb
@ Bragantino PA
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Águia de Marabá – last 6
LDWWWW
6 May
vs Paysandu
1–5
L
29 Apr
@ Porto Velho
1–1
D
16 Apr
vs Remo
2–1
W
7 Apr
vs Galvez
3–2
W
31 Mar
@ Amazonas
2–0
W
26 Mar
@ Monte Roraima
4–2
W
2.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tuna Luso and Águia de Marabá.
What is the prediction for Tuna Luso vs Águia de Marabá?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Tuna Luso vs Águia de Marabá?
On our numbers Tuna Luso have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Águia de Marabá 40%.
How many goals will there be in Tuna Luso vs Águia de Marabá?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tuna Luso vs Águia de Marabá?
Our predicted score is Tuna Luso 1–1 Águia de Marabá, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Tuna Luso vs Águia de Marabá?
Tuna Luso vs Águia de Marabá (Serie D) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Serie D · Brazil
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America-RN5
Laguna0
Brasil DE Pelotas0
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Cianorte1
Cascavel0
CRAC2
ABECAT Ouvidorense1
CSE1
CSA5
Ferroviario2
Uniclinic Atletico Clube0