The Serie D sees Independência take on Araguaína on Sunday 17 May, kicking off at 22:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Independência's last 5: WLLLD Most recently they beat GAS 3–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Araguaína's last 5: WLWDD Most recently they beat Humaitá 7–0 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Araguaína arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.1 for Independência and 2.0 for Araguaína. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score in 57% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Araguaína to win – a 57% chance at odds of 1.91, above our fair price of 1.76, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Independência 1–2 Araguaína. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Independência22%fair 4.61 · @3.40
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @3.20
Araguaína57%fair 1.76 · @1.91
3.08Expected goals
1.13Independência xG
1.95Araguaína xG
57%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
1–210%
0–19%
0–29%
1–36%
0–36%
From our goals model: Independência 1.1 – 2.0 Araguaína expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Araguaína to win✗
57%
1.76
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.29
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.74
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
81%
1.23
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
Araguaína ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Araguaína / FT Araguaína✗
36%
2.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.12
–
Form
Independência – last 6
WLLLDL
29 Apr
vs GAS
3–2
W
19 Apr
@ Galvez
1–2
L
15 Apr
@ Paysandu
1–2
L
8 Apr
@ Trem
0–4
L
26 Mar
vs Guaporé
0–0
D
6 Mar
vs Galvez
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Araguaína – last 6
WLWDDW
11 May
@ Humaitá
7–0
W
29 Apr
vs Vila Nova
1–2
L
15 Apr
@ Rio Branco ES
3–1
W
8 Apr
vs Capital Brasilia
0–0
D
5 Apr
@ Galvez
1–1
D
29 Mar
@ Primavera MG
2–0
W
2.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independência and Araguaína.
What is the prediction for Independência vs Araguaína?
Our pick is Araguaína to win with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Independência vs Araguaína?
On our numbers Independência have a 22% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Araguaína 57%.
How many goals will there be in Independência vs Araguaína?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independência vs Araguaína?
Our predicted score is Independência 1–2 Araguaína, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Independência vs Araguaína?
Independência vs Araguaína (Serie D) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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