Value bet: Juventude to win @ 1.91 – our chance 59% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultJuventude to win ✓59% · @1.91
Double chanceJuventude or draw ✓85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.79
Juventude vs Tombense preview and prediction
The match
The sees Juventude take on Tombense on Thursday 7 May, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi.
Form guide
Juventude's last 5: LWLWD Most recently they lost to Cianorte 2–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Tombense's last 5: DLDWL Most recently they drew with São Bernardo 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for Juventude and 0.8 for Tombense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 52%.
Value angle: Juventude to win at 1.91 – 59% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Juventude 2–0 Tombense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Juventude59%fair 1.70 · @1.91
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @3.10
Tombense15%fair 6.52 · @3.85
2.68Expected goals
1.88Juventude xG
0.80Tombense xG
52%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Juventude 1.9 – 0.8 Tombense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Juventude to win✓
59%
1.70
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Juventude or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.18
Half-time result
Juventude ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Juventude / FT Juventude✗
40%
2.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.79
–
Form
Juventude – last 6
LWLWDL
1 May
@ Cianorte
2–3
L
26 Apr
vs Londrina
1–0
W
21 Apr
@ Sao Paulo
0–1
L
19 Apr
@ CRB
1–0
W
16 Apr
vs Chapecoense-sc
0–0
D
8 Apr
@ Caxias
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Tombense – last 6
DLDWLL
30 Apr
vs São Bernardo
2–2
D
16 Apr
@ Volta Redonda
2–3
L
9 Apr
vs America Mineiro
3–3
D
26 Mar
vs Avai
3–2
W
12 Mar
@ Confiança
0–2
L
1 Mar
@ Uniao Trabalhadores
1–3
L
1.8Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Juventude and Tombense.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Juventude vs Tombense?
On our numbers Juventude have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Tombense 15%.
How many goals will there be in Juventude vs Tombense?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Juventude vs Tombense?
Our predicted score is Juventude 2–0 Tombense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Juventude vs Tombense?
Juventude vs Tombense () kicks off on Thursday 7 May 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Volta Redonda1
Novorizontino2
São Bernardo1
Caxias1
Operario-PR1
Chapecoense-sc2
Avai2
Sampaio Corrêa RJ0
America Mineiro3
Cianorte2