Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultSão Bernardo to win ✗41% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.30
São Bernardo vs Caxias preview and prediction
The match
The sees São Bernardo take on Caxias on Thursday 7 May, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT) at Estadio Primeiro de Maio.
Form guide
São Bernardo's last 5: DLLWL Most recently they drew with Tombense 2–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Caxias's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat Volta Redonda 2–0 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Caxias arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.2 for São Bernardo and 1.0 for Caxias. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: São Bernardo 41%, draw 27%, Caxias 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.95.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: São Bernardo 1–1 Caxias. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
São Bernardo41%fair 2.43 · @2.20
Draw27%fair 3.76 · @3.00
Caxias32%fair 3.10 · @3.20
2.19Expected goals
1.22São Bernardo xG
0.97Caxias xG
51%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–011%
0–111%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: São Bernardo 1.2 – 1.0 Caxias expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
São Bernardo to win✗
41%
2.43
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.36
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT São Bernardo / FT São Bernardo✗
24%
4.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.30
–
Form
São Bernardo – last 6
DLLWLD
30 Apr
@ Tombense
2–2
D
15 Apr
vs Cianorte
0–1
L
10 Apr
@ Novorizontino
0–1
L
6 Apr
@ Botafogo SP
2–1
W
2 Apr
vs Operario-PR
1–2
L
30 Mar
vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Caxias – last 6
WWLWWL
1 May
vs Volta Redonda
2–0
W
28 Apr
vs Ypiranga-RS
2–1
W
16 Apr
@ Avai
0–1
L
8 Apr
vs Juventude
1–0
W
29 Mar
@ America Mineiro
2–1
W
26 Feb
vs Guarany de Bagé
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between São Bernardo and Caxias.
What is the prediction for São Bernardo vs Caxias?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win São Bernardo vs Caxias?
On our numbers São Bernardo have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Caxias 32%.
How many goals will there be in São Bernardo vs Caxias?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for São Bernardo vs Caxias?
Our predicted score is São Bernardo 1–1 Caxias, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is São Bernardo vs Caxias?
São Bernardo vs Caxias () kicks off on Thursday 7 May 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Primeiro de Maio.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Volta Redonda1
Novorizontino2
Operario-PR1
Chapecoense-sc2
Juventude2
Tombense1
Avai2
Sampaio Corrêa RJ0
America Mineiro3
Cianorte2