Good pick · fair odds 1.47 · bookmaker 1.42 · Won ✓
7/10Rating
1.42Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 51% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDefensor Sporting to win ✗48% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · @1.13
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗17% · fair 5.91
Cerro vs Defensor Sporting preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División Apertura sees Cerro take on Defensor Sporting on Sunday 5 April, kicking off at 19:30 (WAT) at Estadio Luis Troccoli. Cerro are 9th with 18 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Defensor Sporting sit 13th on 12 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Cerro's last 5: WLLDD Most recently they beat Juventud 1–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Defensor Sporting's last 5: DDWDL Most recently they drew with Albion FC 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 0.8 for Cerro and 1.1 for Defensor Sporting. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.15 – 51% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 68% chance at odds of 1.42. Predicted score: Cerro 0–1 Defensor Sporting. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cerro29%fair 3.50 · @3.30
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @2.92
Defensor Sporting48%fair 2.09 · @2.25
1.90Expected goals
0.77Cerro xG
1.13Defensor Sporting xG
51%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–117%
0–015%
1–113%
1–012%
0–210%
1–27%
From our goals model: Cerro 0.8 – 1.1 Defensor Sporting expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Defensor Sporting to win✗
48%
2.09
2.25 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.98
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
58%
1.71
1.55
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.42
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.13
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Defensor Sporting / FT Defensor Sporting✗
25%
4.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
17%
5.91
–
Form
Cerro – last 6
WLLDDL
25 Mar
vs Juventud
1–0
W
21 Mar
@ Penarol
1–3
L
8 Mar
@ Racing Montevideo
0–1
L
28 Feb
vs Boston River
1–1
D
20 Feb
vs Liverpool Montevideo
1–1
D
16 Feb
@ Albion FC
0–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Defensor Sporting – last 6
DDWDLL
31 Mar
vs Albion FC
1–1
D
26 Mar
@ Danubio
0–0
D
21 Mar
vs Club Nacional
2–1
W
9 Mar
vs Central Espanol
0–0
D
3 Mar
@ Atletico Torque
0–1
L
27 Feb
@ Atletico Torque
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cerro and Defensor Sporting.
What is the prediction for Cerro vs Defensor Sporting?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Cerro vs Defensor Sporting?
On our numbers Cerro have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Defensor Sporting 48%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro vs Defensor Sporting?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro vs Defensor Sporting?
Our predicted score is Cerro 0–1 Defensor Sporting, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Cerro vs Defensor Sporting?
Cerro vs Defensor Sporting (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Troccoli.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
