Value bet: Fortaleza EC to win @ 2.90 – our chance 40% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFortaleza EC to win ✗40% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.06
Ceara vs Fortaleza EC preview and prediction
The match
Ceara host Fortaleza EC in the Copa Do Nordeste on Thursday 9 April, with kick-off at 01:30 (WAT).
Form guide
Ceara's last 5: DDWWW Most recently they drew with Ponte Preta 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Fortaleza EC's last 5: DWWLW Most recently they drew with Cuiaba 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Ceara and 1.3 for Fortaleza EC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 58%.
Value angle: Fortaleza EC to win at 2.90 – 40% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Ceara 1–1 Fortaleza EC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ceara35%fair 2.89 · @2.38
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.00
Fortaleza EC40%fair 2.50 · @2.90
2.46Expected goals
1.17Ceara xG
1.29Fortaleza EC xG
58%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Ceara 1.2 – 1.3 Fortaleza EC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fortaleza EC to win✗
40%
2.50
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fortaleza EC / FT Fortaleza EC✗
23%
4.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.06
–
Form
Ceara – last 6
DDWWWW
2 Apr
@ Ponte Preta
1–1
D
25 Mar
vs ABC
1–1
D
12 Mar
@ Maranhão
1–0
W
27 Feb
vs Primavera SP
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Floresta
4–0
W
15 Feb
@ Floresta
3–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Fortaleza EC – last 6
DWWLWW
31 Mar
vs Cuiaba
0–0
D
28 Mar
vs Imperatriz
2–1
W
25 Mar
@ Ferroviario
1–0
W
21 Mar
@ Botafogo SP
0–4
L
17 Mar
@ Nova Iguaçu
1–0
W
11 Mar
@ Manauara
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ceara and Fortaleza EC.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Ceara vs Fortaleza EC?
On our numbers Ceara have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Fortaleza EC 40%.
How many goals will there be in Ceara vs Fortaleza EC?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ceara vs Fortaleza EC?
Our predicted score is Ceara 1–1 Fortaleza EC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Ceara vs Fortaleza EC?
Ceara vs Fortaleza EC (Copa Do Nordeste) kicks off on Thursday 9 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Copa Do Nordeste · Brazil
Sport Recife3
Retrô0
AO Itabaiana0
Confiança1
ASA2
CRB0