Ceara travel to Arena MRV in the Copa Do Brasil on Thursday 23 April (23:00 WAT) to face Atletico-MG.
Form guide
Atletico-MG's last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat Juventud 2–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ceara's last 5: WWWDD Most recently they beat Jacuipense 4–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.5 for Atletico-MG and 0.6 for Ceara. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 58% likely.
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Atletico-MG 1–0 Ceara. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico-MG62%fair 1.62 · @1.54
Draw19%fair 5.25 · @3.90
Ceara19%fair 5.16 · @6.20
2.14Expected goals
1.50Atletico-MG xG
0.64Ceara xG
52%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–013%
0–012%
1–111%
2–18%
0–18%
From our goals model: Atletico-MG 1.5 – 0.6 Ceara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico-MG to win✓
62%
1.62
1.54
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.24
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.83 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico-MG / FT Atletico-MG✓
35%
2.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.67
–
Form
Atletico-MG – last 6
WLLWWW
16 Apr
vs Juventud
2–1
W
12 Apr
@ Santos
0–1
L
9 Apr
@ Puerto Cabello
1–2
L
2 Apr
@ Chapecoense-sc
4–0
W
19 Mar
vs Sao Paulo
1–0
W
11 Mar
vs Internacional
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Ceara – last 6
WWWDDW
15 Apr
vs Jacuipense
4–1
W
12 Apr
vs Nautico Recife
1–0
W
9 Apr
vs Fortaleza EC
2–0
W
2 Apr
@ Ponte Preta
1–1
D
25 Mar
vs ABC
1–1
D
12 Mar
@ Maranhão
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico-MG and Ceara.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Ceara?
On our numbers Atletico-MG have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Ceara 19%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico-MG vs Ceara?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico-MG vs Ceara?
Our predicted score is Atletico-MG 1–0 Ceara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Atletico-MG vs Ceara?
Atletico-MG vs Ceara (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena MRV.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Fortaleza EC2
CRB1
Athletic Club1
Internacional2
Flamengo2
Vitoria1
RB Bragantino1
Mirassol1
Palmeiras3
Jacuipense0