Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 52% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFlamengo to win ✓71% · @1.27
Double chanceFlamengo or draw ✓87% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.05
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗12% · fair 8.15
Flamengo vs Vitoria preview and prediction
The match
Vitoria travel to Estádio do Maracanã in the Copa Do Brasil on Thursday 23 April (01:30 WAT) to face Flamengo.
Form guide
Flamengo's last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat Bahia 2–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Vitoria's last 5: DWWDL Most recently they drew with Corinthians 0–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Flamengo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.2 for Flamengo and 0.8 for Vitoria. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 52% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Flamengo 71%, draw 16%, Vitoria 13%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.05.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.05 – 52% on our numbers against 49% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Flamengo 2–0 Vitoria. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Flamengo71%fair 1.41 · @1.27
Draw16%fair 6.15 · @5.10
Vitoria13%fair 7.69 · @11.50
2.98Expected goals
2.19Flamengo xG
0.78Vitoria xG
52%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
3–09%
1–19%
3–17%
From our goals model: Flamengo 2.2 – 0.8 Vitoria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Flamengo to win✓
71%
1.41
1.27
Double chance
Flamengo or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
1.48
Half-time result
Flamengo ahead at half-time✗
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Flamengo / FT Flamengo✗
46%
2.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
12%
8.15
–
Form
Flamengo – last 6
WWWLDW
19 Apr
vs Bahia
2–0
W
17 Apr
vs Independiente Medellin
4–1
W
9 Apr
@ Cusco
2–0
W
3 Apr
@ RB Bragantino
0–3
L
23 Mar
@ Corinthians
1–1
D
20 Mar
vs remo
3–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Vitoria – last 6
DWWDLL
19 Apr
vs Corinthians
0–0
D
16 Apr
vs Piauí
3–1
W
8 Apr
vs Juazeirense
4–1
W
5 Apr
@ Chapecoense-sc
1–1
D
2 Apr
@ Cruzeiro
0–3
L
25 Mar
vs Botafogo PB
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Flamengo and Vitoria.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Flamengo vs Vitoria?
On our numbers Flamengo have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Vitoria 13%.
How many goals will there be in Flamengo vs Vitoria?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Flamengo vs Vitoria?
Our predicted score is Flamengo 2–0 Vitoria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Flamengo vs Vitoria?
Flamengo vs Vitoria (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Maracanã.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Fortaleza EC2
CRB1
Athletic Club1
Internacional2
RB Bragantino1
Mirassol1
Atletico-MG2
Ceara1
Palmeiras3
Jacuipense0